This is all a bit hypothetical but I was pondering this last night. If I were to decide to return to the UK some time in the future I could make a stop off in the Philippines en route. Given the cost of living in there I'm considering the possibility of being able to support me and the family there for an extended holiday by playing poker.
I reckon the following variables have to be considered.
1) How many hours a week could I play.
2) How many tables could I play.
3) What level of table could I play.
4) What is my expected win-rate.
Based on my current play I would estimate the following as realistic.
1) 25 hours 2) 3 tables 3) 25NL 4) 10BB/hour win-rate
= US$750 a month = HK$5,850 = 29,250 peso a month.
Now in Hong Kong terms that is a lousy wage and I wouldn't dream of 'working' 25 hours for that amount. However if it enabled an extended holiday for say three months without dipping into my savings it wouldn't be too bad. Let Mrs Phillberto and the little 'berts see their family for a while. One three hour session in the morning, another three hours in the evening with the afternoon at the beach and laid back dinner and pina colada of an evening and a couple of days off a week to chill and be a tourist. What do you think?
Tweaking the variables a little bit.
1) 30 hours 2) 4 tables 3) 50NL 4) 10BB/hour
All very hypothetical as I've not played at these levels yet but I don't see these targets as being too outlandish.
= US$2,400 a month = HK$18,720 = 93,600 peso a month.
Now again I wouldn't consider that as worth doing in Hong Kong or UK but staying in the Philippines I can imagine that might actually translate into a decent quality of life. Presumably I'd improve as I was playing so much.
I'd have the funds to cover a three month vacation even if the and wouldn't want to extend it beyond 3-12 months but see this as a viable detour on my way home.
As I have no plans to head home as yet so this is all hypothetical but with education fees looming on the horizon in the not too distant future it's got me to thinking.
What do you reckon? Pie in the sky?
Monday, 21 May 2007
Free Gifts
Check out.
www.internettexasholdem.com
These guys provide links to the normal bonii offered by Party, Empire, Stars etc. You sign up using the link provided by them then after playing about half the way through your bonus you email them and choose three normal free gifts or one premium and one normal.
For my stars bonus I've opted for Poker Ace HUD (tracking software), Poker Theory by Sklansky/Miller and Harrington on Holdem 3.
They also offer premium gifts of DVD sets, International subscription for Bluff or Cardplayer, Poker Tracker etc.
As this is in addition to the normal bonus it is a great find.
www.internettexasholdem.com
These guys provide links to the normal bonii offered by Party, Empire, Stars etc. You sign up using the link provided by them then after playing about half the way through your bonus you email them and choose three normal free gifts or one premium and one normal.
For my stars bonus I've opted for Poker Ace HUD (tracking software), Poker Theory by Sklansky/Miller and Harrington on Holdem 3.
They also offer premium gifts of DVD sets, International subscription for Bluff or Cardplayer, Poker Tracker etc.
As this is in addition to the normal bonus it is a great find.
Roll's are the goal
Monday morning roll-call as follows:
1) Deadly US$1090 (-36) (+35) (+101) (-110) (+257) (+134) (+6) (+117)
2) Phillberto US$931 (+231)(+76)(+90) (+50) (+106) (+23) (+133) (+306) *
3) Moocher666 US$545 (-105) (no change)(+78) (+4) *
4) Bigshotbog US$230 (-40) (no change)(nc) (nc) (-150)(nc) (+10) (-264)
*Moocher owes Phillberto$455
Bigshotbog
Is online poker retirement being considered. Having built a bank-roll in excess of $900 it was looking very rosy for bigshot not so long ago. With his family in town poker time is going to be limited in any event this week. Surely some bad variance to blame for this run although perhaps his play has turned a little 'tilty' - hard to avoid. Come on bigshot suck it up and get back on a winning run.
Moocher
A bad week for Moocher. After returning from Dubai he has hit a bad run. Problems cashing out his Party roll to neteller delays his start on the empire bonus. Now running behind Moocher is looking for a decent run to get himself on track.
Deadly
Back in town after his trip. I strongly suspect this week may see deadly return to the virtual felt with a vengeance. Didn't find the time for a live session in the UK so his mouse finger must be even itchier.
Phillberto
I think that without counting bonii (I only got US$10 of bonus this week) this is my biggest winning week yet. Currently two tabling at 25NL at Stars. Played a three hour session on Sunday taking in around $60. I'm running at 16PTBB/100 which I'm happy with although that compares poorly to my 29PTBB/100 at 10NL. This is approaching $10 an hour win-rate playing two tables. I've played around 2,500 hands so far and I'm looking to get up to 10,000 hands before assessing the merits of moving up or adding more tables.
1) Deadly US$1090 (-36) (+35) (+101) (-110) (+257) (+134) (+6) (+117)
2) Phillberto US$931 (+231)(+76)(+90) (+50) (+106) (+23) (+133) (+306) *
3) Moocher666 US$545 (-105) (no change)(+78) (+4) *
4) Bigshotbog US$230 (-40) (no change)(nc) (nc) (-150)(nc) (+10) (-264)
*Moocher owes Phillberto$455
Bigshotbog
Is online poker retirement being considered. Having built a bank-roll in excess of $900 it was looking very rosy for bigshot not so long ago. With his family in town poker time is going to be limited in any event this week. Surely some bad variance to blame for this run although perhaps his play has turned a little 'tilty' - hard to avoid. Come on bigshot suck it up and get back on a winning run.
Moocher
A bad week for Moocher. After returning from Dubai he has hit a bad run. Problems cashing out his Party roll to neteller delays his start on the empire bonus. Now running behind Moocher is looking for a decent run to get himself on track.
Deadly
Back in town after his trip. I strongly suspect this week may see deadly return to the virtual felt with a vengeance. Didn't find the time for a live session in the UK so his mouse finger must be even itchier.
Phillberto
I think that without counting bonii (I only got US$10 of bonus this week) this is my biggest winning week yet. Currently two tabling at 25NL at Stars. Played a three hour session on Sunday taking in around $60. I'm running at 16PTBB/100 which I'm happy with although that compares poorly to my 29PTBB/100 at 10NL. This is approaching $10 an hour win-rate playing two tables. I've played around 2,500 hands so far and I'm looking to get up to 10,000 hands before assessing the merits of moving up or adding more tables.
Friday, 18 May 2007
A couple of tricky hands.
Reboot my computer and manage to get Stars working at last. Decide to play one table at Stars and one at Paradise.
The Stars table seems to be filled with a lot of short stacks for whom I give little respect. Four limpers and I have KK in the small blind. Raise $1.50. Short stack on $6 thinks I'm on the steal and puts me all in. An ace lands on the river but I take it down as he shows KJo. Nice play fella.
A new short stack ($7) arrives to take the vacated seat. He announces his arrival by going all-in and is uncalled. He shows J7o. Next hand, same tactic again. All-in. Uncalled again. Next hand I catch 77. I raise to a $1 under the gun hoping to isolate crazy man but get called by another shortie on $4! Crazy man goes all-in. I'm not overly happy with the prospect of 77 pre-flop against two callers but call anyway. Shortie folds and I watch four overcards fall none of which connect as crazy man shows down K6. My stack edges up to $43 ($18 up) when I call it a night.
Paradise table
Two key hands on the 5 max Paradise table that I'll share.
i'm in the small blind.
Big blind has $11.40 and I cover
Dealt AKo
Folded around and I raise from the small blind to U1$
Big blind calls.
Flop QQJ rainbow.
I check.
BB raises to $0.70
I call.
As he called a raise I think he has at least a couple of high cards or a pair. I may be ahead and its too small a bet to fold especially given that a 10 is a big out.
Turn is a 9
Pot: $3.4
I check.
BB bets 1.20
Mmmm. A second bullet. I think he likely has something now. A pocket pair. J or even a Q which he is milking. I'm getting around 3-1 to call. I think I have four outs with the tens and decent implied odds if it lands. 6 questionable outs with A and K. Odds are more like 4-1 on me hitting even counting some questionable outs and I make a very loose call.
Pot: 5.80
River: 10 (no flushes possible).
My dream card and I bet 2.50
He goes all-in costing me $6 more to call.
Mmmm. Given the amount of money in the pot I pretty much rule out a bluff. He thinks he has a hand, only question is how good a hand.
I lose to.....
Full house: He may have caught a full house on the flop. QJ would be a loosish call but possible. . A pair of JJ is also possible as is 99 and 10,10. Q9 is less likely to have called my initial raise. Q 10 again less likely. His bets are all eminently callable which fits in with this holding.
I split with....
AK - his bets all make sense here given my weakness. Possible although slightly reduced by me holding the same hand of course.
I beat...
Trips: I priced my bet size to make it difficult for trips to fold. A re-raise all-in pretty much rules out this holding. I think unlikely.
Straight: He holds the K. I think KQ fits with his play. KJ also. K 10 and K 9 both seem like loose pre-flop calls . Maybe suited though?
I call. I think its very close but I'm likely ahead of his range.
Would you call?
The other key hand of the night.
Again played out of position.
I hold Kc 6s.
Two callers and I'm in the big blind.
Pot: 0.75
Flop
4c 6h 7c
I connect a bit and bet 0.60. I want to take it down her and the flop is likely to have missed them both.
MP1 calls.
Mp2 folds
Pot: 1.95
Turn: Jc
I'm thinking he will fold a lot of holdings here. If he held a straight draw he should fold it. If he just holds a pair he has to be worried and I have a flush draw now to fall back on.
I bet$1.20
He thinks and calls.
Pot: 4.35
River: Qc
My flush hits.
I bet $2.50.
He re-raises me to $7.50
Pot: $14.35
I need to call $5.
What does he have? Almost certainly a club. I've got the second nuts and only Ac beats me. I'm getting 3-1 odds to call. I almost call and have another look at the board. Ig he doesn't have the Ac then the next best card is 10c. I really can't imagine he would make this raise with just the 10c. The pause and call on the turn smacks of a draw and most people can't lay down the Ace in those situations.
I fold. Weak tight?
What's your play?
The Stars table seems to be filled with a lot of short stacks for whom I give little respect. Four limpers and I have KK in the small blind. Raise $1.50. Short stack on $6 thinks I'm on the steal and puts me all in. An ace lands on the river but I take it down as he shows KJo. Nice play fella.
A new short stack ($7) arrives to take the vacated seat. He announces his arrival by going all-in and is uncalled. He shows J7o. Next hand, same tactic again. All-in. Uncalled again. Next hand I catch 77. I raise to a $1 under the gun hoping to isolate crazy man but get called by another shortie on $4! Crazy man goes all-in. I'm not overly happy with the prospect of 77 pre-flop against two callers but call anyway. Shortie folds and I watch four overcards fall none of which connect as crazy man shows down K6. My stack edges up to $43 ($18 up) when I call it a night.
Paradise table
Two key hands on the 5 max Paradise table that I'll share.
i'm in the small blind.
Big blind has $11.40 and I cover
Dealt AKo
Folded around and I raise from the small blind to U1$
Big blind calls.
Flop QQJ rainbow.
I check.
BB raises to $0.70
I call.
As he called a raise I think he has at least a couple of high cards or a pair. I may be ahead and its too small a bet to fold especially given that a 10 is a big out.
Turn is a 9
Pot: $3.4
I check.
BB bets 1.20
Mmmm. A second bullet. I think he likely has something now. A pocket pair. J or even a Q which he is milking. I'm getting around 3-1 to call. I think I have four outs with the tens and decent implied odds if it lands. 6 questionable outs with A and K. Odds are more like 4-1 on me hitting even counting some questionable outs and I make a very loose call.
Pot: 5.80
River: 10 (no flushes possible).
My dream card and I bet 2.50
He goes all-in costing me $6 more to call.
Mmmm. Given the amount of money in the pot I pretty much rule out a bluff. He thinks he has a hand, only question is how good a hand.
I lose to.....
Full house: He may have caught a full house on the flop. QJ would be a loosish call but possible. . A pair of JJ is also possible as is 99 and 10,10. Q9 is less likely to have called my initial raise. Q 10 again less likely. His bets are all eminently callable which fits in with this holding.
I split with....
AK - his bets all make sense here given my weakness. Possible although slightly reduced by me holding the same hand of course.
I beat...
Trips: I priced my bet size to make it difficult for trips to fold. A re-raise all-in pretty much rules out this holding. I think unlikely.
Straight: He holds the K. I think KQ fits with his play. KJ also. K 10 and K 9 both seem like loose pre-flop calls . Maybe suited though?
I call. I think its very close but I'm likely ahead of his range.
Would you call?
The other key hand of the night.
Again played out of position.
I hold Kc 6s.
Two callers and I'm in the big blind.
Pot: 0.75
Flop
4c 6h 7c
I connect a bit and bet 0.60. I want to take it down her and the flop is likely to have missed them both.
MP1 calls.
Mp2 folds
Pot: 1.95
Turn: Jc
I'm thinking he will fold a lot of holdings here. If he held a straight draw he should fold it. If he just holds a pair he has to be worried and I have a flush draw now to fall back on.
I bet$1.20
He thinks and calls.
Pot: 4.35
River: Qc
My flush hits.
I bet $2.50.
He re-raises me to $7.50
Pot: $14.35
I need to call $5.
What does he have? Almost certainly a club. I've got the second nuts and only Ac beats me. I'm getting 3-1 odds to call. I almost call and have another look at the board. Ig he doesn't have the Ac then the next best card is 10c. I really can't imagine he would make this raise with just the 10c. The pause and call on the turn smacks of a draw and most people can't lay down the Ace in those situations.
I fold. Weak tight?
What's your play?
Thursday, 17 May 2007
My fate is in the Stars
A change of heart, I decide I want to give Stars another chance. Join a table and after fifteen minutes I hit a big hand. Playing five handed I raise 5 5 under the gun to $1. I'm not being given too much respect on my raises by this guy and as big blind calls with US$16 behind (I cover). Flop 5 6 7 rainbow. BB bets U$1.50. I give him a pretty big range here. I'm worried about giving a draw a free card and if he has an overpair or two pair I may be able to bust him. I raise to US$5. He comes back over the top and goes all in. What does he have?
Trips - 2 outs and I'm almost drawing dead. 20%?
Made straight - I have 8 outs on the turn then 11 on the river. Odds of 2.5-1(?) on catching a full house. I need to call another $10 to win $32. I have the pot odds to call. So my big re-raise committed me - need to give that bet size some thought for next time. 30%
Two pair - I'm well ahead and I put this down as his most likely holding. 35%
Overpair - If he has AA or KK he has played them strangely. QQ is possible I guess, JJ or lower then he is being extremely aggressive. 10%
Top pair and draw - outside possibility. I think he would have folded this to my reraise or just called. 5%
Ultimately I'm not going to fold trips so I call.
My connection goes awry and I have to wait about 45 secs before returning to the table. First thing I notice is he is sitting out and I have his cash. Woo hoo! Then I notice a lot of chatter in german with the word 'Gluck' appearing a lot. I surmise from this he was ahead and I've hit the full house. I check the hand history and indeed he had 8 9o and a 6 hit on the river to boat me up.
Well I'll try and remember this one when I finally take a costly bad beat.
My connection at Stars continues to be temperamental. I switch to Paradise take down a couple more dollars and decide to call it a night and start watching a movie before crashing out.
Trips - 2 outs and I'm almost drawing dead. 20%?
Made straight - I have 8 outs on the turn then 11 on the river. Odds of 2.5-1(?) on catching a full house. I need to call another $10 to win $32. I have the pot odds to call. So my big re-raise committed me - need to give that bet size some thought for next time. 30%
Two pair - I'm well ahead and I put this down as his most likely holding. 35%
Overpair - If he has AA or KK he has played them strangely. QQ is possible I guess, JJ or lower then he is being extremely aggressive. 10%
Top pair and draw - outside possibility. I think he would have folded this to my reraise or just called. 5%
Ultimately I'm not going to fold trips so I call.
My connection goes awry and I have to wait about 45 secs before returning to the table. First thing I notice is he is sitting out and I have his cash. Woo hoo! Then I notice a lot of chatter in german with the word 'Gluck' appearing a lot. I surmise from this he was ahead and I've hit the full house. I check the hand history and indeed he had 8 9o and a 6 hit on the river to boat me up.
Well I'll try and remember this one when I finally take a costly bad beat.
My connection at Stars continues to be temperamental. I switch to Paradise take down a couple more dollars and decide to call it a night and start watching a movie before crashing out.
Wednesday, 16 May 2007
Just another day in Paradise
Eating Pineapple fried rice as I play another session over lunch break. I raise 10 10 on the button, get called from shortie small blind and get re-raised by the big blind. He has a medium stack and its not a huge re-raise (2.20). Raising after the small blind called it is far more likely he has a big hand. I decide to call for set value. Rainbow flop A,10,X. Perfect. Shortie goes all in. BB goes all-in for $17.50. I briefly consider AA as his holding but pretty sure he would just call with this. No way I can fold trips here anyway. Shortie shows AQ and BB show AK. Nice pot.
Start to take over the table and end up $39 up. That could keep me in fried rice for the next two weeks. Looks like I'm on a bit of hot streak. I'll continue with Paradise for now methinks.
Start to take over the table and end up $39 up. That could keep me in fried rice for the next two weeks. Looks like I'm on a bit of hot streak. I'll continue with Paradise for now methinks.
Bonus Dilemma
Currently got three bonus options in front of me at the moment and I'm in a bit of a quandary.
Option 1.
Party
Received a very welcome 15% bonus up to a $100 offer today. Was just about to transfer all my money across there for what is the best reload in town until I checked the conditions. Usually they offer x10 raked hands which means I could clear the bonus in 6 hours four tabling at any level. Party tightens up a lot during reload periods but I 'm sure I would still be making a reasonable amount on top of this at the 10NL tables. With the new bonus structure of 3 party points per $1 bonus that makes it closer to 24 hours of multi-tabling to be done in a week. Only $1 an hour per table. Mmmm. Expires in 7 days.
Poker Stars
Poker Stars welcome bonus works out at $1 an hour playing 25NL. They are offering double points earning rate until the 22/5 making it $2 per hour. On top of this I stand to get three free gifts from Internettexasholdem.com who I used to refer me. This includes a range of books, PA HUD and a year's magazine subscription that you choose from. On the down side they have just offered a reload bonus which means every bonus whore in the globe will be playing there meaning I'll face some tough tables if I play there. The other downside is my connection sucks. Not sure why but this may be the decisive factor.
Paradise
$2 an hour bonus. Steady but no time expiry so should be able to do this at any time although they are about to change network which will probably mean scratching all existing bonus in place. Games seem soft but lack of tracking software and site structure makes it difficult to multi-table.
Decisions. Decisions.
Option 1.
Party
Received a very welcome 15% bonus up to a $100 offer today. Was just about to transfer all my money across there for what is the best reload in town until I checked the conditions. Usually they offer x10 raked hands which means I could clear the bonus in 6 hours four tabling at any level. Party tightens up a lot during reload periods but I 'm sure I would still be making a reasonable amount on top of this at the 10NL tables. With the new bonus structure of 3 party points per $1 bonus that makes it closer to 24 hours of multi-tabling to be done in a week. Only $1 an hour per table. Mmmm. Expires in 7 days.
Poker Stars
Poker Stars welcome bonus works out at $1 an hour playing 25NL. They are offering double points earning rate until the 22/5 making it $2 per hour. On top of this I stand to get three free gifts from Internettexasholdem.com who I used to refer me. This includes a range of books, PA HUD and a year's magazine subscription that you choose from. On the down side they have just offered a reload bonus which means every bonus whore in the globe will be playing there meaning I'll face some tough tables if I play there. The other downside is my connection sucks. Not sure why but this may be the decisive factor.
Paradise
$2 an hour bonus. Steady but no time expiry so should be able to do this at any time although they are about to change network which will probably mean scratching all existing bonus in place. Games seem soft but lack of tracking software and site structure makes it difficult to multi-table.
Decisions. Decisions.
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