High Stakes Poker - Season 5

Hopefully everyone has had a chance by now to watch the opening episodes from the new season on Poker-tube. If not go and watch them now. With the next episode out today I'm looking forward to seeing Dwan and Brunson clash in a big pot.

Most of the internet discussion has focussed on the hand between Peter Eastgate, Barry Greenstein and the man that looks likely to be awarded poker demi-god status for his audacious turn bluff.

Having read the various takes of internet hind-sighters it seems that there were a number of mistakes made by all three of those involved, in my opinion of course...or should I say someone elses who I happen to agree with.

Eastgate's first mistake was his pre-flop call with 42o. Made worse by the fact that he laughed seemingly amused by the fact an under the gun raise from a tight player could become a family pot and thus flagging up the fact he was playing trash to an observant player.

Dwan's flop bet was questionable it seems. It seems very unlikely he was setting up his turn play with that bet and as a value bet it was pretty misjudged.

Eastgate gets himself into trouble here by calling the flop raise. After facing the turn bet he is a tricky position as both Dwan and him have 500K stacks. He could easily be outkicked and out of position the rest of the money will likely only go in if he is behind. There is an argument for a flop-reraise but if he faces a shove he then loses somewhere between 200-300K. I can't fault his fold at all.

Greenstein has received a lot of flack as well for folding his pocket Aces. There is actually a strong case for folding to Dwan's flop bet after Eastgate called as he was unlikely to be ahead then. He has since said he considered it but thought Eastgate may have called with a Ten. He has also said that he would have got it all-in with Dwan had Eastgate not been involved.

It has certainly give everyone the impression that Eastgate can be moved off of big hand though. If he is smart enough to recognise that possibility he could pick off some big bluffs.

Credit to Dwan for the turn bet though - done with not only a very good read on his opponents hands were but a very good read on what way they would err in a tough situation.

If these guys had stock market prices I think Dwan would be flying high and Negreanu would be dragging the index down to new lows.