Blackjack

I deposit $100 in my Ladbrokes Casino account. I'm after the $100 welcome bonus. I've printed off my perfect strategy spreadsheet and I have to play 4 x my $100 deposit at a minimum of $10 per hand. I lose my first three hands including one doubled hand and its looking like I might bust out but I hit a nice run including two Blackjacks and a winning double and I'm soon $40 up. I manage one more winning double but have a losing streak on my last few hands to finish up $10 down.

I claim my $100 bonus and assuming I've not messed up on the criteria in some way - they do try and make it tricky I should be $90 to the good for 20 minutes work.

It's off on the footie club Xmas bash tonight sailing on a junk on the high seas to .....
where else but the other side of Lamma. Land Ahoy!

Interpoker

Final Summary

Played a total of 7,308 hands to clear the bonus. Managed a multi-tabling ratio of 2.21 with a true win rate of $6.76 an hour plus bonus.
Averaged a win-rate of 3.44PTBB/100 less than my target of 5PTBB/100.

Fortunately I anticipated cashing out with $422 but managed $611 so won more than my expectation for a site profit of +$511. If I lump the 50NL and GBP25NL tables together I profit at all the bigger stakes game but lost at the lower stakes. I think I'm too inclined to not believe overbets on the lower stakes, play a few more hands and try and move people of hands a bit too much.


The breakdown was as follows.
50NL 378 hands
-15.84PTBB/100

(GBP)25NL 754 hands
+22.64PTBB/100


GBP20NL 3753 hands
+13.53PTBB/100

25NL 929 hands
+10.31BB/100

GBP10NL 2533 hands
-5.47PTBB/100

GBP6NL 606 hands
-5.76PTBB/100

10NL 351 hands
-22.65PTBB/100

Auf Wiedersehen Interpoker. It was gut.

Variance Biting me in the ass - Part 2

Table 2.

Game #4631102883: Hold'em NL (£0.15/£0.25) - 2007/12/16 - 15:01:22 (UK)
Table "Valtin" Seat 5 is the button.
Seat 1: Thing50 (£25.65 in chips)
Seat 2: Phillbert (£29.15 in chips)
Seat 3: Wayn05047 (£4.54 in chips)
Seat 4: OnniBosse (£24.01 in chips)
Seat 5: lapwing (£48.48 in chips)
Seat 6: layback (£33.11 in chips)
layback: posts small blind £0.15
Thing50: posts big blind £0.25
----- HOLE CARDS -----
dealt to Phillbert [Qs Qc]
Phillbert: raises to £1
Wayn05047: calls £1
OnniBosse: folds
lapwing: calls £1
layback: folds
Thing50: folds
----- FLOP ----- [6d 5c Jc]
Phillbert: bets £3.23
Wayn05047: folds
lapwing: raises to £6.46
Phillbert: calls £3.23
----- TURN ----- [6d 5c Jc][7s]
Phillbert: checks
lapwing: bets £8
Phillbert: calls £8
----- RIVER ----- [6d 5c Jc 7s][Kc]
Phillbert: checks
lapwing: bets £15
Phillbert: ???

Table 3

Hold'em NL ($0.25/$0.50) - 2007/12/16 - 15:25:15 (UK)
Table "Snebordet" Seat 1 is the button.
Seat 1: NEMO1 ($50.84 in chips)
Seat 2: OrbitKing ($50.45 in chips)
Seat 3: aaa123 ($34.73 in chips)
Seat 4: Phillbert ($53.50 in chips)
Seat 5: dubwize ($51 in chips)
Seat 6: Areisha ($101.30 in chips)
OrbitKing: posts small blind $0.25
aaa123: posts big blind $0.50
dealt to Phillbert [Kc Kh]
Phillbert: raises to $2
dubwize: folds
Areisha: folds
NEMO1: folds
OrbitKing: folds
aaa123: calls $1.50
----- FLOP ----- [As Td Kd]
aaa123: checks
Phillbert: bets $3
aaa123: raises to $6
Phillbert: calls $3
----- TURN ----- [As Td Kd][2c]
aaa123: bets $14.50
Phillbert: raises to $45.50 and is all-in


Hold'em NL ($0.25/$0.50) - 2007/12/16 - 15:55:54 (UK)
Table "Snebordet"
Seat 2 is the button.
Seat 1: NEMO1 ($50.64 in chips)
Seat 2: Audorin ($25.15 in chips)
Seat 3: slymatic ($18.96 in chips)
Seat 4: Phillbert ($50 in chips)
Seat 5: dubwize ($92.25 in chips)
Seat 6: Areisha ($90.73 in chips)
slymatic: posts small blind $0.25
Phillbert: posts big blind $0.50
----- HOLE CARDS -----
dealt to Phillbert [As Kc]
dubwize: folds
Areisha: folds
NEMO1: folds
Audorin: calls $0.50
slymatic: calls $0.25
Phillbert: raises to $3
Audorin: calls $2.50
slymatic: folds
----- FLOP ----- [Js 8d Ts]
Phillbert: bets $4.40
Audorin: raises to $22.15 and is all-in
Phillbert ??

Hold'em NL ($0.25/$0.50) - 2007/12/16 - 16:25:38 (UK)
Table "Snebordet" Seat 5 is the button.
Seat 1: NEMO1 ($70.55 in chips)
Seat 2: Audorin sits out
Seat 3: Asakias ($13.45 in chips)
Seat 4: Phillbert ($45.25 in chips)
Seat 5: dubwize ($62.05 in chips)
Seat 6: Ramirez ($45.50 in chips)
Ramirez: posts small blind $0.25
NEMO1: posts big blind $0.50
----- HOLE CARDS -----
dealt to Phillbert [As Ks]
Audorin sits back
Asakias: calls $0.50
Phillbert: raises to $3
dubwize: folds
Ramirez: folds
NEMO1: calls $2.50
Asakias: folds
----- FLOP ----- [Qd 4h Ah]
NEMO1: checks
Phillbert: bets $4.75
NEMO1: calls $4.75
----- TURN ----- [Qd 4h Ah][9c]
NEMO1: checks
Phillbert: checks
----- RIVER ----- [Qd 4h Ah 9c][2c]
NEMO1: bets $8.50
Phillbert ???

Variance biting me in the ass or poor play - Part 1

So a losing session for me last night on all three tables. I've picked out the biggest hands - winning and losing and will post them. Any I should have played differently?

Hold'em NL (£0.15/£0.25) - 2007/12/16 - 15:34:32 (UK)
Reads: Fishnchip is raising a lot preflop (over 20%) and is aggressive post-flop. Lapwing is average.


Table "Sipnesrrin" Seat 2 is the button.
Seat 1: Ulanova (£44.62 in chips)
Seat 2: Phillbert (£23.10 in chips)
Seat 3: Houchen1 (£30.34 in chips)
Seat 4: lapwing (£19.42 in chips)
Seat 5: Bri131117 (£3.66 in chips)
Seat 6: fishnchip (£26.02 in chips)
Houchen1: posts small blind £0.15
lapwing: posts big blind £0.25
dealt to Phillbert [9s 9c]
Bri131117: folds
fishnchip: raises to £2.50
Ulanova: folds
Phillbert: raises to £6
Houchen1: folds
lapwing: calls £5.75
fishnchip: raises to £26.02 and is all-in
Phillbert ???

Hold'em NL (£0.15/£0.25) - 2007/12/16 - 15:47:07 (UK)
Reads: Fishnchip is aggressive but has been raising over 20% of hands. He is aggressive post-flop but seems solid. Houchen1 is a calling station and poor player.
Table "Sipnesrrin" Seat 1 is the button.
Seat 1: Ulanova (£47.06 in chips)
Seat 2: Phillbert (£27 in chips)
Seat 3: Houchen1 (£29.67 in chips)
Seat 4: lapwing (£17.49 in chips)
Seat 5: Bri131117 (£8.26 in chips)
Seat 6: fishnchip (£46.30 in chips)
Phillbert: posts small blind £0.15
Houchen1: posts big blind £0.25
----- HOLE CARDS -----
dealt to Phillbert [9h 9d]
lapwing: folds
Bri131117: folds
fishnchip: raises to £2.75
Ulanova: folds
Phillbert: raises to £6
Houchen1: calls £5.75
fishnchip: raises to £46.30 and is all-in
Phillbert ????


Hold'em NL (£0.15/£0.25) - 2007/12/16 - 16:01:58 (UK)
Table "Sipnesrrin" Seat 2 is the button.
Seat 1: Greylight (£10 in chips)
Seat 2: Phillbert (£25.85 in chips)
Seat 3: Houchen1 (£23.73 in chips)
Seat 4: lapwing (£18.73 in chips)
Seat 5: Bri131117 (£12.52 in chips)
Seat 6: Dogjohn (£13.32 in chips)
Houchen1: posts small blind £0.15
lapwing: posts big blind £0.25
----- HOLE CARDS -----
dealt to Phillbert [Jc Kh]
Bri131117: folds
Dogjohn: folds
Greylight: calls £0.25
Phillbert: raises to £1.25
Houchen1: calls £1.10
lapwing: folds
Greylight: calls £1
----- FLOP ----- [6s Js Qd]
Houchen1: checks
Greylight: checks
Phillbert: bets £2.40
Houchen1: folds
Greylight: calls £2.40
----- TURN ----- [6s Js Qd][Kc]
Greylight: checks
Phillbert bets £7

Hold'em NL (£0.15/£0.25) - 2007/12/16 - 16:10:22 (UK)
Table "Sipnesrrin" Seat 1 is the button.
Seat 1: Greylight (£20.58 in chips)
Seat 2: Phillbert (£23.08 in chips)
Seat 3: Houchen1 (£17.83 in chips)
Seat 4: lapwing (£20.94 in chips)
Seat 5: Bri131117 (£9.11 in chips)
Seat 6: ACE5WILD (£15.89 in chips)
Phillbert: posts small blind £0.15
Houchen1: posts big blind £0.25
----- HOLE CARDS -----
dealt to Phillbert [Ad Kd]
lapwing: calls £0.25
Bri131117: folds
ACE5WILD: folds
Greylight: folds
Phillbert: raises to £1.75
Houchen1: raises to £3.25
lapwing: folds
Phillbert: raises to £23.08 and is all-in

Bankrolls 17/12

Here is the juice. Deadly continues his run of three figure gains and Phillberto chalks up his biggest week yet. Lamma_Jim approaches bankruptcy and makes plans to buy in again and resume his dalliance with the cash game circuit that hasn't welcomed him warmly. We await Moocher and Bigshots figures to complete the festive book-keeping. And in news just Moocher takes another mini-slide while Bigshot busts and awaits his new year reload to step back to the online felt for hopefully a better online 2008.

I may well sign off on this result for the poker playing year although may dabble in the casino and online betting world if I get the opportunity. The Cincinnati Kid Club in Glasgow looks quite tempting for some live action as well.

Lamma Poker Exchange: 4893(+157)

Online rolls/profits
1) Deadly $3435 (+100)(+220) (+235) (-30) (nc) (+283) (nc) (-150) (-120) (+140) (+250) (+100) (nc) (+100) (+3) (+123)(-30) (+51) (+205) (+12) (-267) (+1) (+82) (+247) (+169)(+104) (+118)(-59)(+447) (-36) (+35) (+101) (-110) (+257) (+134) (+6) (+117)
2) Phillberto $3213 (+376) (-41) (+65)(+183) (+39) (-19)(-34)(+64) (+173) (+11) (+230)(+23) (+60)(+80)(+41) (+95)(+37) (+148) (+41)(+143) (-117) (+69) (+131) (+150)(-12) (+87) (+243) (+41) (+12) (+231)(+76)(+90) (+50) (+106) (+23) (+133) (+306)
3) Moocher666 $220 (-30) (+17) (-27) (-10) (+20) (+50) (-100) (-80) (nc) (-36) (-13)(-11)(+9) (+16)(-5)(-20) (+180) (-50) (-110)(-110) (nc) (-30) (-41) (-6) (-38)(-35)(-38)(-27) (-105) (nc) (+78) (+4)
4) Lamma_Jim $5 (-56) (nc) (nc) (-9) (nc) (+8) (+15) (-4) (-37) (-1) (-6) (nc) (-2) (+1) (-2)
(-3) (+1)
4) Bigshotbog $0 (-233)(+27) (-88) (+4) (+180) (-30) (-25) (-57) (+21) (+46)(+54) (-49)(-50) (-11) (nc) (+81)(-87) (nc)(-33) (-175) (nc) (-49) (nc) (nc) (nc)(nc) (nc)(-6)(nc)(-40) (nc)(nc) (nc) (-150)(nc) (+10) (-264)

Moocher owes Phillberto $475

Super Caley are fantastic, Celtic are atrocious

Looks like I've forgotten to list half my bets. Think I forgot to look at the second page of bets. Anyway a worryingly good start to my festive punting.

11 wins. 3 losses and 2 results to follow.

+15.34 (2 bets pending)
Bonus Clearance:$16.70

West Ham v Everton - $2.50 (2.80) WIN +4.50
Els v Dyson - S.African Open - $2.50 (1.54) = WIN +1.35
Fiorentina v Mlada Boleslav - $2.50 (1.20) PENDING
AZ Alkmaar v Everton $1.50 (4.25) PENDING
Real Madrid v Osasuna $2.50 (1.3) WIN +0.75
Valencia v Barcelona $2.50 (2.05) WIN +2.62
Derby v Middlesborough 2.50 (2.85) LOSE -2.50
St Mirren v Dundee U $2.50 (1.36) WIN +0.90
Kilmarnock v Gretna $2.50 (1.12) LOSE -2.50
Inverness CT v Celtic $1.00 (7.0) WIN +6.00
Hibs v Falkirk $1.70 (5.1) LOSE -1.70
Liverpool v Man U $2.50 (2.7) WIN +4.25
Rangers v Hearts $4.40 (1.38) WIN +1.67

Drunken Poker - once more into the fray

After some festive supping it was out with sober logic and clear thinking and time for some high octane stuff.

I sparked up one GBP20NL and a GBP25NL table, waited for the blinds to hit and dropped a line to Moocher who was on the bubble on one of his fave formats a Full Tilt bounty MTT.

I didn't have long to wait for some action as I get pocket Jacks on the Big Blind on my first hand.

Hold'em NL (£0.10/£0.20) - 2007/12/14 - 16:37:03 (UK)
Table "Dagotep" Seat 1 is the button.
Seat 1: Leeb23101 sits out
Seat 2: banco (£24.84 in chips)
Seat 4: Phillbert (£20 in chips)
Seat 5: overit (£13.81 in chips)
Seat 6: Paulw1304 (£32.03 in chips)
banco: posts small blind £0.10
Phillbert: posts big blind £0.20
dealt to Phillbert [Js Jd]
overit: folds
Paulw1304: calls £0.20
banco: calls £0.10
Its only 3 handed but it's not a hand I like out of position so I'd be happy to take the pot down or better still narrow it down to one caller with a better idea of his range.
Phillbert: raises to £1.20
Paulw1304: calls £1
Ulanova joins the table at seat #3
banco: folds
----- FLOP ----- [8h Jh 9c]
I hit trips but its a dangerous flop with straight and flush possibilities so I pot it.
Phillbert: bets £2.47
Paulw1304: calls £2.47
----- TURN ----- [8h Jh 9c][Qs]
If he called with the open ended straight draw then he got there.
Phillbert: checks
Paulw1304: bets £28.36 and is all-in
Phillbert ??????
I'm thinking its a big overbet if he has the ten. Surely he is going to want action. I call. You like?

Shortly after another big hand on the other table

Hold'em NL (£0.15/£0.25) - 2007/12/14 - 16:41:28 (UK)
Table "Sipnesrrin" Seat 1 is the button.
Seat 1: Phillbert (£25.12 in chips)
Seat 2: Dar050516 (£18.04 in chips)
Seat 3: msoza96 (£55.12 in chips)
Seat 4: Gar250829 (£23.85 in chips)
Seat 5: Chivnos (£42.42 in chips)
Seat 6: Irishbluf sits out
Dar050516: posts small blind £0.15
msoza96: posts big blind £0.25
dealt to Phillbert [Tc Ts]
Gar250829: raises to £0.50
Chivnos: folds
Phillbert: raises to £1.50
Dar050516: calls £1.35
msoza96: folds
Gar250829: calls £1
----- FLOP ----- [5d Ah Th]
Dar050516: bets £2
Gar250829: raises to £4
Phillbert: raises to £23.62 and is all-in
Dar050516: foldsGar250829: is all-in £18.35
Returned uncalled bets £1.27 to Phillbert
----- TURN ----- [5d Ah Th][6s]----- RIVER ----- [5d Ah Th 6s][7d]----- SHOW DOWN -----Phillbert: shows [Tc Ts] (Three of a kind, Tens, Ace high)
Gar250829: shows [3h Kh] (High Card Ace)
Phillbert collected £48.88 from Main pot

Woo hoo! Ship it!

Then the good times really start to roll

Hold'em NL (£0.15/£0.25) - 2007/12/14 - 17:06:56 (UK)
Table "Sipnesrrin" Seat 1 is the button.
Seat 1: Phillbert (£37.46 in chips)
Seat 2: Dar050516 (£11.21 in chips)
Seat 3: msoza96 (£65.64 in chips)
Seat 4: Ste111052 (£7.80 in chips)
Seat 5: Chivnos (£44.33 in chips)
Seat 6: Greylight (£9.37 in chips)
Dar050516: posts small blind £0.15
msoza96: posts big blind £0.25
dealt to Phillbert [6h 6s]
Ste111052: calls £0.25
Chivnos: calls £0.25
Greylight: calls £0.25
Phillbert: raises to £1.75
Dar050516: foldsmsoza96: calls £1.50
Ste111052: calls £1.50
Chivnos: calls £1.50
Greylight: calls £1.50
----- FLOP ----- [2d 6d 4h]
msoza96: checks
Ste111052: checks
Chivnos: checks
Greylight: bets £0.75
Phillbert: raises to £7
msoza96: calls £7
Ste111052: is all-in £6.05
Chivnos: folds
Greylight: raises to £7.62 and is all-in
Phillbert: calls £0.62
msoza96: calls £0.62
----- TURN ----- [2d 6d 4h][9h]
msoza96: checks
Phillbert: bets £28.09 and is all-in
msoza96: calls £28.09
----- RIVER ----- [2d 6d 4h 9h][9s]
----- SHOW DOWN -----Phillbert: shows [6h 6s] (A Full House, Sixes full of Nines)
msoza96: shows [2h 3h] (Two Pairs, Nines and Twos, Six high)
Ste111052: shows [3c 2c] (Two Pairs, Nines and Twos, Six high)

Lol!! 23clubs!

Then one final hand...
Hold'em NL (£0.15/£0.25) - 2007/12/14 - 17:22:28 (UK)
Table "Sipnesrrin"
Seat 6 is the button.
Seat 1: Phillbert (£92.49 in chips)
Seat 2: Theduc002 sits out
Seat 3: msoza96 (£36.60 in chips)
Seat 4: Toonboy (£26.33 in chips)
Seat 5: Chivnos (£42.45 in chips)
Seat 6: Greylight (£11.32 in chips)
Phillbert: posts small blind £0.15
soza96: posts big blind £0.25
dealt to Phillbert [Kc As]
Toonboy: folds
Chivnos: folds
Greylight: folds
Phillbert: raises to £1.25
msoza96: calls £1
----- FLOP ----- [Ah 8s 5d]
Pot:£2.50
Phillbert: bets £1.50
msoza96: calls £1.50
----- TURN ----- [Ah 8s 5d][2h]
Pot:£5
Phillbert: checksmsoza96: bets £4.75
Phillbert: calls £4.75
----- RIVER ----- [Ah 8s 5d 2h][3h]
Pot:£14.50
Phillbert: bets £4
msoza96: raises to £19
Phillbert ????

Festive Punting - Results

So I didn't find let alone read the terms and conditions so I dropped an email to support requesting T&Cs and it appears my bonus clearance bets have to be 1.4 or higher odds

That means $9.20 of my bets will be accounted for in clearing bonus.....ah well I'm off to a good start with The Big Easy staging a comeback after bogying the first two to come back one under and a long way ahead of Dyson who was well and truly hoovered.

Els v Dyson - S.African Open - $2.50 (1.54) = +1.35
Fiorentina v Mlada Boleslav - $2.50 (1.20)
AZ Alkmaar v Everton $1.50 (4.25)
Real Madrid v Osasuna $2.50 (1.3)
St Mirren v Dundee U $2.50 (1.36)
Kilmarnock v Gretna $2.50 (1.12)
Inverness CT v Celtic $1.00 (7.0)
Hibs v Falkirk $1.70 (5.1)
Liverpool v Man U $2.50 (2.7)
Rangers v Hearts $4.40 (1.38)

Festive Punting

I've signed up for Unibet who offer a GBP20 welcome bonus. So I deposited $50 and the gave me $41 free. i now have to bet $82 in order to cash out with my loot.

I predict using my random selection policy and Bookies usual edge Ill be looking to leave with around half my bonus intact.

I've kicked off the clearance requirement with the following selection:

Els v Dyson - S.African Open - $2.50 (1.54)
Fiorentina v Mlada Boleslav - $2.50 (1.20)
AZ Alkmaar v Everton $1.50 (4.25)
Real Madrid v Osasuna $2.50 (1.3)
St Mirren v Dundee U $2.50 (1.36)
Kilmarnock v Gretna $2.50 (1.12)
Inverness CT v Celtic $1.00 (7.0)
Hibs v Falkirk $1.70 (5.1)
Liverpool v Man U $2.50 (2.7)
Rangers v Hearts $4.40 (1.38)

Total staked $31.10
I need to win $15.55 to be on track to cash out as break even. Anything else is money in the poker bankroll. Yeah, baby! Who said this was just (even?) a poker site. See the nit does have some gamble in him!

The online bookies are mostly banned in HK but this one seems to work. Most of the sites seem to offer welcome bonus of about $40. The fast way to clear them as an example as an example is to open up three accounts. You have to bet $80 to earn your bonus so you deposit $80 in each of three accounts. You then bet Liverpool to win on Sunday, Man U to win on Sunday and the draw on each of the three accounts.
Liverpool win: Site 1: Cash Out $192 Site 2: Cash Out $40 Site 3: Cash out $40
Result: +US$32
Man U win: Site 1: Cash out $40 Site 2: Cash Out $216 Site 3: Cash Out $40
Result: +US$56
Draw: Site 1: Cash Out $40 Site 2: Cash Out $40 Cash Out: $252
+US$92

Not bad going for 20 minutes work in setting up accounts that you will never use again. As I'm new to it I still want to have a little punt as long as its a +ev situation for me.

Bigshot's new Site

According to the site I use to assess where I'm playing Poker Stars for 6 max 25NL and 50NL games has the toughest games around at the moment. It seems to be a site to avoid at the moment at those levels.

Assuming you are moving away from tournaments (and planning to play 6 max - where the real action is) there are a few things to take into account.

1) Quality of Games -
The softest currently are:
Poker4Ever
Pacific Poker
Ongame (5 skins including Poker Room and Hollywood)

Deadly mentioned Full Tilt which plays average at 25NL and slightly below average at 50NL (eg quite good players). William Hill is part of the Cryptologic Network and is tough at the moment for 25NL and average for 100NL. It's also where I'm playing at the moment and although I'm winning its at a lower rate than normal.

2) Rakeback and Bonus - my preference is to keep moving and to earn whatever the best bonus around is. You may want to consider signing up for a Rakeback deal. I've not really examined this in too much detail but if you are planning to play at one site for a long time this might be for you. For bonii at the moment all of the above are pretty easy to earn $100. Alternatively you could also sign up via Internet Texas Holdem and get Poker Tracker for free which is very useful for improving your play. I'd estimate I earn about $6 an hour from play and around $3 from bonus at the moment.
As an example for Poker Room you need to pay $100 in month in rake to be eligible for rakeback of 30%.

3) Availability. This is not really an issue at most sites if you are looking to play 25NL and 50NL. The traffic at Poker4Ever can be poor at certain times but for single tabling I seriously doubt you would ever be without an instant game at any of these sites.

4) Software. Each sites has its quirks and nice features. The only factor I really take into account is multi-tabling ease. Its very difficult at Poker4 Ever. Another factor is whether it supports Poker Tracker or not. If you aren't planning to use it then you really want to play at a site where it doesn't function so you are competing on equal terms. Poker4Ever is one such site that doesn't.

If you want a combination of Tournaments and cash play then it gets more complex.

I'll try and hone this down to a recommendation when I see you next.

Casino Bonii

Just had a look at a Casino Bonus Whoring site and there seem to be a few tasty ones around.

From this site these four sites: Ladbrokes, Golden Palace, Bet365 and 888.com pay a total of $800 in bonus.

Assuming I play Blackjack using basic strategy at $5 a hand ($20 at Ladbrokes) I can clear $800 worth of bonus in 9 hours. As the house has a small edge playing perfect blackjack strategy I would expect to cash out $732 of this as profit with average luck. That works out at over $81/hour.

In reality I would guess I'd be playing at about half the pace they predict and probably messing up basic strategy to double the casinos house edge. That would make a profit of $664 in 18 hours still working out at almost $37 and hour.

As I'm on holiday I greatly doubt I'll be allowed 18 hours 'spare' but I'll see if I can squeeze in one or two and I'm researching if I can play any of them in Hong Kong.

Has anyone tried the Ladbrokes Deal or No Deal thing yet. I reckon you can earn +$30 in less than 15 minutes. Just make sure they have put the bonus in your account before you start playing. I didn't and ended up losing money before I started clearing the bonus.

Would you like sauce with that?

I've picked my new poker site to kick-off 2008. Hugh Hefner may not actually take much note but I will be shipping him some rake thoughout January and February in return for a $200 welcome bonus. I also plan to sign up through Internet Texas Holdem and can expect two free books in addition. I will be wearing a fluffy bunny girl tail and suspenders for the duration of my online career there.

I'm planning on 'Inside the Poker mind' and 'Professional No Limit Hold'em' as my tomes of choice.

I anticipate it should take me around 58 hours of multi-table play for the bonus so expect to clear it by 25th February. With an initial deposit of $200 I'm targeting a cash-out figure of $1000. Based on last years calculation method I would be looking at 8 full weeks to clear this and aiming at a cash-out figure of $752. Not counting bonus that's now a true hourly rate of $10.34/hour as opposed to $6/hour. Quite a jump.

I need to do this for my ambitious 10K by the close of 2008 bankroll target, if I set the year up into four Quarters I'm looking for the following gains:
Quarter 1: +$1,250
Quarter 2: +$1,500
Quarter 3: +1,700
Quarter 4 +1,800

Given week 1 is going to be a write-off and February is a short month I have just six weeks of play in Jan/Feb so need +100 for Weeks 2-6 with the Week 7 including the bonus and being +300.
So....
January Target: +$300
February Target: +$500
March Target: +$450

Can I hear a 'geek' from the floor please....

Hands that don't do dishes

Logged on for another session last night and squeezed in just over an hour. I was looking for 40NL or 50NL but went with table selection and opted for the 20NL tables where the pots were bigger and more people seeing the flop. I decided to play two GBP10NL and one GBP25NL tables. All big hands of the night below.

Hold'em NL (£0.05/£0.10)
Seat 2 is the button.
Seat 1: Strato86 (£10 in chips)
Seat 2: Sarah2014 (£12.77 in chips)
Seat 3: Kathl0908 (£11.48 in chips)
Seat 4: Phillbert (£24.62 in chips)
Seat 5: Lynds1609 (£7.36 in chips)
Seat 6: Fowksey (£9.38 in chips)
Kathl0908: posts small blind £0.05
Phillbert: posts big blind £0.10
----- HOLE CARDS -----
dealt to Phillbert [Js Kc]
Lynds1609: calls £0.10
Fowksey: folds
Strato86: folds
Sarah2014: calls £0.10
Kathl0908: calls £0.05
Phillbert: checks
----- FLOP ----- [6h Ks 2h]
Kathl0908: checks
Phillbert: bets £0.38
Lynds1609: calls £0.38
Sarah2014: calls £0.38
Kathl0908: calls £0.38
----- TURN ----- [6h Ks 2h][9d]
Kathl0908: checks
Phillbert: bets £1.10
Lynds1609: folds
Sarah2014: calls £1.10
Kathl0908: calls £1.10
----- RIVER ----- [6h Ks 2h 9d][8c]
Kathl0908: checks
Phillbert: checks
Sarah2014: bets £2
Kathl0908: folds
Phillbert ??????
Game #4581887853: Hold'em NL (£0.05/£0.10) "Gunsalo"
Seat 3 is the button.
Seat 1: Car110915 (£9.55 in chips)
Seat 2: Sarah2014 (£11.38 in chips)
Seat 3: Kathl0908 (£15.84 in chips)
Seat 4: Phillbert (£19.63 in chips)
Seat 5: Lynds1609 (£7.18 in chips)
Seat 6: Fowksey (£9.90 in chips)
Phillbert: posts small blind £0.05
Lynds1609: posts big blind £0.10
----- HOLE CARDS -----
dealt to Phillbert [Qd As]
Fowksey: calls £0.10
Car110915: folds
Sarah2014: folds
Kathl0908: calls £0.10
Phillbert: raises to £0.80
Lynds1609: folds
Fowksey: folds
Kathl0908: calls £0.70
----- FLOP ----- [4c 4s 8h]
Phillbert: bets £1.70
Kathl0908: calls £1.70
----- TURN ----- [4c 4s 8h][Ah]
Phillbert: checks
Kathl0908: checks
----- RIVER ----- [4c 4s 8h Ah][3c]
Phillbert ??????


And now a couple of big pair hands. Both Standard?


Game #4581528353: Hold'em NL (£0.15/£0.25)
Seat 4 is the button.
Seat 1: Svenn1007 (£55.34 in chips)
Seat 2: Coolll (£19.75 in chips)
Seat 3: ennitti (£53.10 in chips)
Seat 4: Kev270820 (£15.77 in chips)
Seat 5: Mic181065 (£12.52 in chips)
Seat 6: Phillbert (£26.26 in chips)
Mic181065: posts small blind £0.15
Phillbert: posts big blind £0.25
----- HOLE CARDS -----
dealt to Phillbert [Kd Ks]
Svenn1007: folds
Coolll: raises to £1
ennitti: folds
Kev270820: folds
Mic181065: calls £0.85
Phillbert: raises to £4
Coolll: calls £3
Mic181065: folds
----- FLOP ----- [Tc 7c Jh]
Phillbert: bets £8
Coolll: calls £8
----- TURN ----- [Tc 7c Jh][4d]
Phillbert: bets £8

Hold'em NL (£0.05/£0.10)
Seat 5 is the button.
Seat 2: Thefrench (£3.97 in chips)
Seat 3: Pau250313 (£4 in chips)
Seat 4: Car110915 (£10 in chips)
Seat 5: Mystery7 (£5.84 in chips)
Seat 6: Phillbert (£11.40 in chips)
Phillbert: posts small blind £0.05
Thefrench: posts big blind £0.10
Pau250313: posts big blind £0.10
----- HOLE CARDS -----
dealt to Phillbert [As Ac]
Pau250313: checks
Car110915: raises to £0.40
Mystery7: folds
Phillbert: raises to £1.50
Thefrench: folds
Pau250313: folds
Car110915: calls £1.10
----- FLOP ----- [3s 4s Qd]
Phillbert: bets £3
Car110915: raises to £8.50 and is all-in
Phillbert: calls £5.50

Bet the Pot schmuck

I posted two of the hands posted yesterday on Bet the Pot Forum and got some advice from the (semi) pros. First hand posted was my trips facing a reraise allin on the river with flush and straight possibilities. They decided that as played it was a call but that I misplayed the hand by not betting enough on the flop and turn which I already knew. The second hand I posted was my pocket Kings hand and the consensus was I played it well.

The end result was $140 up so can't complain with the results. No poker yesterday as I attended a function at the Hyatt but Bigshot spent the day playing at home and dropped $100 getting felted thrice-fold.........don't give up the day job Bigshot!

Lamma Live - Movers and Sharkers

Deadly earns himself the title of King of the Home Game. The Spice Boy clings on to a winning player after alcohol increasing his willingness to gamble and a winning debut for the Don gives him an instant ranking among the elite that are winning players. More updates on Monday for sure.

Deadly +1,598 (+700)
Bigshot +1228
Sham +506
Pete +210
The Don +200 (+200)
Moocher +186 (-100)
The Spice Boy +20 (-500)
Jack -34
Jan - 150
Paul: -150 (-150)
Steve -152
American Chris -400
Lamma_Jim -442
Phillberto -1118
Dave - 1150

Hands up, baby Hands up.

It's been a while since I posted any hands. The primary reason for setting up this blog. So without further ado here you go. Analyse, criticise as you see fit.


Hold'em NL (£0.15/£0.25) - 2007/12/10 - 14:35:00 (UK)
Table "Sipnesrrin"
Seat 2 is the button.
Seat 1: Maldonado (£16.67 in chips)
Seat 2: jenka (£19.83 in chips)
Seat 3: shutgun (£36.15 in chips)
Seat 4: Phillbert (£31.89 in chips)
Seat 5: Killy9 (£6.25 in chips)
Seat 6: Luckyme33 (£22.05 in chips)
shutgun: posts small blind £0.15
Phillbert: posts big blind £0.25
dealt to Phillbert [Jd Js]
Killy9: folds
Luckyme33: folds
Maldonado: calls £0.25
jenka: folds
shutgun: calls £0.10
Phillbert: raises to £1.50
Maldonado: calls £1.25
shutgun: folds
----- FLOP ----- [Kc Ts 8c]
Phillbert: bets £2.10
Maldonado: calls £2.10
----- TURN ----- [Kc Ts 8c][Jc]
Phillbert: bets £3.75
Maldonado: raises to £13.07 and is all-in
Phillbert: ?????



Hold'em NL (£0.10/£0.20) - 2007/12/10 - 15:10:50 (UK) Table "Dagotep"
Seat 5 is the button.
Seat 1: Cha041215 (£18.10 in chips)
Seat 2: Icansee (£16.98 in chips)
Seat 3: Phillbert (£31.38 in chips)
Seat 4: edoras001 (£17.60 in chips)
Seat 5: Lind25016 (£8.61 in chips)
Seat 6: Cmoniron (£45.85 in chips)
Cmoniron: posts small blind £0.10
Cha041215: posts big blind £0.20
dealt to Phillbert [Tc Th]
Icansee: calls £0.20
Phillbert: raises to £0.40 (this was an accident I almost timed out and had just enough time to hit a button call or raise which the default for is a minraise)
edoras001: folds
Lind25016: calls £0.40
Cmoniron: calls £0.30
Cha041215: raises to £0.80
Icansee: calls £0.60
Phillbert: calls £0.40
Lind25016: calls £0.40
Cmoniron: calls £0.40
----- FLOP ----- [6c Jd Td]
Cmoniron: checks
Cha041215: bets £1
Icansee: calls £1
Phillbert: raises to £5
Lind25016: folds
Cmoniron: folds
Cha041215: calls £4
Icansee: calls £4
----- TURN ----- [6c Jd Td][Kd]
Cha041215: checks
Icansee: checks
Phillbert: ??????

15:33:20 (UK) Table "Dagotep"
Seat 1 is the button.
Seat 1: msoza96 (£21.05 in chips)
Seat 2: Icansee (£29.73 in chips)
Seat 3: Phillbert (£69.76 in chips)
Seat 4: edoras001 (£22.96 in chips)
Seat 5: Cra040520 (£25.32 in chips)
Seat 6: Kiall (£21.26 in chips)
Icansee: posts small blind £0.10
Phillbert: posts big blind £0.20
----- HOLE CARDS -----
dealt to Phillbert [Ks Kc]
edoras001: folds
Cra040520: folds
Kiall: folds
msoza96: raises to £0.80
Icansee: calls £0.70
Phillbert: raises to £3.40
msoza96: folds
Icansee: calls £2.60
----- FLOP ----- [Ac 9d Js]
Icansee: checks
Phillbert: checks
----- TURN ----- [Ac 9d Js][7c]
Icansee: bets £3
Phillbert: calls £3
----- RIVER ----- [Ac 9d Js 7c][2h]
Icansee: bets £5
Phillbert: ?????


Hold'em NL (£0.15/£0.25) - 2007/12/10 - 15:36:38 (UK) Table "Sipnesrrin" S
eat 4 is the button.
Seat 1: Maldonado (£25.54 in chips)
Seat 2: Murphy12 (£15.02 in chips)
Seat 3: shutgun (£45.62 in chips)
Seat 4: Phillbert (£43.06 in chips)
Seat 5: Geekboy9 sits out
Seat 6: Sean06 (£19.07 in chips)
Sean06: posts big blind £0.25
dealt to Phillbert [Ts 8c]
Maldonado: calls £0.25
Murphy12: calls £0.25
shutgun: calls £0.25
Phillbert: calls £0.25
Sean06: raises to £1.50
Maldonado: folds
Murphy12: folds
shutgun: calls £1.25
Phillbert: calls £1.25
----- FLOP ----- [8d 4d Th]
Sean06: bets £2
shutgun: folds
Phillbert: calls £2
----- TURN ----- [8d 4d Th][8h]
Sean06: bets £3
Phillbert: calls £3
----- RIVER ----- [8d 4d Th 8h][3h]
Sean06: checks
Phillbert: ????

Chistmas Holdem

Email just been sent out. Who is in? Suggestions welcomed.

All quiet on the Poker Front

I've taken the foot of the pedal this week. Played one ultra brief session at lunch time. Saw a 50NL table with ultra big pots and all playing with big stacks. I presumed they were raising and reraising light and bought in for just 10 bucks with a view to playing short stack strategy. Pushed with KQs against button raise and got stacked by JJ. Lost another one with AK against AQ. Playing a simultanous 20NL table I managed to get stacked with KK after raising OOP to 15% of my stack. A dry flop and turn and I get stacked by trip 9's.

My bad fortune continued on my one other session on Friday night. My queens lose to a medium stack when I call a reraise and then have to call his allin on a non-scary flop. My losses are now running at around $90 and I stage a comeback making one very scary call against a loose aggressive player with A8 on a A862 (rainbow) board and a Queen hits on the river. He bets just over pot and he is representing the Queen having helped him to probably two pair. I make what I think might be a crying call but he shows down a missed straight draw.

I then double up with 88 in a multiway raised pot that hits trips on an aggressive table and get put allin on the turn when a second 6 hits on the turn giving me a full house. I go back ahead for a brief while. Holding a double stack at an aggressive table I have AKo on the button and raise $2. I'm reraised to $8 from the small blind and BB folds. I really should reraise here but wimp out and just call. A low flop and I can't call his 3/4 size pot bet. I recognise playing with $100 has affected my normal game and cash out. I strike up Poker4Ever and play for about 15mins. In that time I lose $10 three times in a row when I can't go beyond the turn with a missed draw or mediocre hand and facing aggression.

Things may be winding down for 2007 on the poker front but I'll try and make amends for a losing week.

The only good news is I'm playing 50NL on a regular basis (although not particularly well it seems).

Elsewhere Deadly continues with killer consistancy but is kicked off his regular haunt of Cardoza and spies William Hill as a possible replacement.

Moocher visits the ATM again as he reloads for another $200 and signs up at Full Tilt enjoying the $3.30 tournaments there. $2.50 goes into the winning pot while 0.50c serves as your 'Bounty'. Every player you take down you keep your bounty. On his way to a 5th place finish he managed to take down 8 bounties giving him a boost to his newly replinished bankroll.

Bigshot declares himself a convert to the Cash is King school of though and racks up a winning week. He admits to being prone to racking up early wins and letting them slide as his opening requirements open up.

With Moocher's rebuy we have a rematch of the battle for third place in the roll stakes with Moocher holding a slight lead.

Radio silence from Lamma_Jim but we have heard reports of Singapore being a venue for some online Poker hustle from a five star hotel room.

Bankrolls - 10/12/07

Lamma Poker Exchange: previously 4736(+223_lj_lj)

Online rolls/profits

1) Deadly $3335 (+220) (+235) (-30) (nc) (+283) (nc) (-150) (-120) (+140) (+250) (+100) (nc) (+100) (+3) (+123)(-30) (+51) (+205) (+12) (-267) (+1) (+82) (+247) (+169)(+104) (+118)
(-59)(+447) (-36) (+35) (+101) (-110) (+257) (+134) (+6) (+117)
2) Phillberto $2837 (-41) (+65)(+183) (+39) (-19)(-34)(+64) (+173) (+11) (+230)(+23) (+60)(+80)(+41) (+95)(+37) (+148) (+41)(+143) (-117) (+69) (+131) (+150)(-12) (+87) (+243) (+41) (+12) (+231)(+76)(+90) (+50) (+106) (+23) (+133) (+306)
3) Moocher666 $250 (+17) (-27) (-10) (+20) (+50) (-100) (-80) (nc) (-36) (-13)(-11)(+9) (+16)(-5)
(-20) (+180) (-50) (-110)(-110) (nc) (-30) (-41) (-6) (-38)(-35)(-38)(-27) (-105) (nc) (+78) (+4)
4) Bigshotbog $233 (+27) (-88) (+4) (+180) (-30) (-25) (-57) (+21) (+46)(+54) (-49)(-50) (-11) (nc) (+81)(-87) (nc)(-33) (-175) (nc) (-49) (nc) (nc) (nc)(nc) (nc)(-6)(nc)(-40) (nc)(nc) (nc) (-150)(nc) (+10) (-264)
5) Lamma_Jim $61 (tbc) (tbc) (-9) (nc) (+8) (+15) (-4) (-37) (-1) (-6) (nc) (-2) (+1) (-2) (-3) (+1)

Moocher owes Phillberto $475

Live in Lamma

I missed this one myself as I scooted off to Clearwater Bay Country club for a wedding. Seems no shortage of action though with three allins in the first couple of rounds of the table. A little bit of Dutch courage for Mr Spicer and two debutants adding to the action it seemed like I missed out on some action.

Rough Estimates provided by Deadly
Deadly: +HK$700
The Don: +200
Moocher: -100
Paul: -150
The Spice Boy: -500

Obviously the figures don't quite tally. Anyone confirm their own gains/losses.

Feel free to post any hands of note for posterity. Sounds like there were a good few feltings!

November Summary

1) Phillberto: November: +268 Oct: +203 Sep: +434 Aug: +321 July: +226 June: +468 May +360 Aprl: +269 Mrch (2 wks): +442
Average: +351 per month (-12)
2) Deadly -Nov: +480 Oct - -130 Sep: +453 Aug: + 349 July: -172 June: +638 May: +389 April: +382 Mrch (2wks) : +123
Average: +296 (+26)
3) Lamma_Jim Nov: tbc Oct: -26 Sep: -10 Aug: -2 (2 wks)
Average: -15 per month
4) Moocher: Nov: +33 Oct: -160 Sep: -21 Aug: 0 July -140 June: -120 May: -170
April (2 weeks): +81
Average: -76 per month (+5)
5) Bigshot: Nov:+62 tbc Oct: -15 Sep: -56 Aug -39 July: -224 June: 0 May: -46 April -150 March (2 weeks) -254 (-705)
Average: -85 per month (+20)

Bankrolls 3/12

Lamma Poker Exchange: previously 4513 (+185_lj)

Online rolls/profits

1) Deadly $3105 (+235) (-30) (nc) (+283) (nc) (-150) (-120) (+140) (+250) (+100) (nc) (+100) (+3) (+123)(-30) (+51) (+205) (+12) (-267) (+1) (+82) (+247) (+169)(+104) (+118)(-59)(+447) (-36) (+35) (+101) (-110) (+257) (+134) (+6) (+117)
2) Phillberto $2878 (+65)(+183) (+39) (-19)(-34)(+64) (+173) (+11) (+230)(+23) (+60)(+80)(+41) (+95)(+37) (+148) (+41)(+143) (-117) (+69) (+131) (+150)(-12) (+87) (+243) (+41) (+12) (+231)(+76)(+90) (+50) (+106) (+23) (+133) (+306)
3) Bigshotbog $206 (-88) (+4) (+180) (-30) (-25) (-57) (+21) (+46)(+54) (-49)(-50) (-11) (nc) (+81)(-87) (nc)(-33) (-175) (nc) (-49) (nc) (nc) (nc)(nc) (nc)(-6)(nc)(-40) (nc)(nc) (nc) (-150)(nc) (+10) (-264)
4) Lamma_Jim $61 (tbc) (-9) (nc) (+8) (+15) (-4) (-37) (-1) (-6) (nc) (-2) (+1) (-2) (-3) (+1)
5) Moocher666 $33 (-27) (-10) (+20) (+50) (-100) (-80) (nc) (-36) (-13)(-11)(+9) (+16)(-5) (-20) (+180) (-50) (-110)(-110) (nc) (-30) (-41) (-6) (-38)(-35)(-38)(-27) (-105) (nc) (+78) (+4)

Moocher owes Phillberto $475

The Empty - Day 3 (cont)

Sparked up the computer at 12.30pm and played 4 tables together (20NL, 40NL, 25NL, 40NL). I won a combined $12 on three tables and lost a whopping $40 getting stacked twice on the 20NL table. One was the KQ v KT hand I posted earlier. The other was a reraised preflop and I hit trips Ts on a AT2 flop. We got allin on the flop and he turned over AK. Runner runner club and I was felted.
A 97% favourite.

I also got all in with AK on an A766 board. He calls with AQ and the river is a 6 meaning a split pot.

I struggled a little four tabling and timed out on maybe 5 hands. One of them was KK and the other 77.

Ended up about $30 down at Poker4 Ever and about $40 down on the day. Meh.

Scary stuff

After buying in and felting two opponents I was playing with a $100 stack and a $70 at very aggressive 50NL with several opponents covering me and a very aggressive game.

On the $100 stack table I was on the BB and facing a raise for 1.75 and a call. I reraise for $6 bucks and both call.

Flop comes T98 with two diamonds.
Pot: $18.50
I bet pot and get called by both!
Turn appears to be a blank.
My play?

The Empty - Day 3

Results and final figures to follow.
Here are a few hands for comment.

1)
UTG - Me $38.25
MP - $8.75
CO - covers me
Button Covers me
SB - $25
BB - covers me

I have 33 under the gun and raise to 1.75
MP calls
CO folds
Button calls
SB folds
BB calls

Flop: Jclubs 93 (rainbow)
BB bets 0.85
I call
MP bets 1.70
Button Calls
BB Calls
My play?

2) On the the Big Blind with Jacks I have a raise for 1.75 and a call from button in front of me. I bet 6.00. The original raiser folds and the smooth-caller reraised all in for his last $14. Me?
3) The very next hand I'm now short stacked at $22. Raiser and 3 callers (told you its a loose table). I bump it up from the small blind to $7. One caller from the button. Flop J76 rainbow
Pot: around $20
I have :$15
Me?
4) Got all in with KQ against KT with KQT3 (two clubs). Ten hits and I lose my stack.
5) Aggressive Button bets 1.75. I've folded a few and reraise to $6 with A9s. he calls.
Flop A9x.
Pot: 12.50
I bet $9
Turn an A hits.
30 in the pot.
Pump fist and shove or shove and pump fist?
6) Raise TT and get called. Flop KTx. Turn and river are not scary and I put him allin on the river. He calls with AA.

1) continued
I raise to 7.50
UTG calls (allin)Button calls
BB folds
Turn: 7 clubs
Pot: $31I have $30 remaining.
My play?

Deadly Hands

Quote Deadly
"Some Hands last night. Around 11pm I decided i needed some poker action as I hadn't played since coming back from Macau.Went for the quick rush of HU 50NL on Cardoza.First game. Me $50, opponent $70. Dealt to me KQ (club and heart I think)He smooth calls on the button I repop to $2 - he calls.Flop is KdQd10sI bet pot - $4he calls - $4Turn is 3sI bet pot - $12He calls - $12River is 10d (scare card in every way)I check, he checksHe had Ad7d and takes it down. What to do different here?
My goodness I had exactly the same hand last night up to the turn. I had position though. He bet out and I raised on the flop. He bet again and I pushed on the turn. He showed KT and spiked the ten on the river!
As played I think its fine. Was your plan to check/call? Against an aggressive opponent prone to bluffing you may consider sticking in a blocking bet in on the river. Next handI am dealt Qh9hRaise on the button to 1.75 -he calls.Flop is Kxx all hearts.I bet - $3He raises to $19 - pot betI re-raise all in - my remaining $27 or so.(I put him on a big flush draw - and I don't have enough behind to do much more)He calls and shows Ah3hWhat are the chances?He then sits out. Types "sorrz"
Standard. You can't worry about getting overflushed there. Get your money in. I try to get him to play for a while but no dice. He is sitting out on 3 tables.I find another table. This time the villian AAungarAA (i don't think it's him) was sat with $148.We low ball it for quite a while - back and forth until this hand.Me A10 suited - I forget which.Flop is A,10 x.I raised pre-flop and bet pot on every street. River was a 10 and I take down a chunk of change. I'm now on $95 ish and he is at $80 ishThen.Dealt KK on the button.I raise to 2.25 - I vary my raises so much as the slide bar control is tricky :-)He repops to $10 or so. I repop him to $30+ and of course he goes all in. What do you do here?".

Mmm tricky one.
His range is obviously pretty narrow. AA, KK, AK.
Against that range your only slightly behind (47%) with money in the pot.
With that range its a call but...........
AK while quite possible depending on the player he may chicken out here and fold or flat-call (poor play).
It's really a read dependent decision. From the previous hand he's shown he's willing to call down big pots without the nuts so he does have some gamble in him.
If we assumed that he would only make the play with Aces or AKs you become a big dog at 30%. You are calling maybe $40 to win $120 and getting odds of 3-1.
So if you run it 100 times then 70 times you lose $80 (-$5600)
30 times you win ($+2400)
Ev: -3,200
if you fold always then you lose $35 x 100 = -$3500
So if that range is accurate then a call is slightly better.
On the other hand.....
- According to Harrington the fourth raise is always Pocket Aces. (He also says assign 10% bluff ratio always though).
Fold.
But...........
- It's headsup. His range is likely bigger.
Pro calling
- if you gamble you are more likely to get paid off in future.
pro folding
- It may put you on tilt.
I'd probably make a call based on poker tracker stats. Aggression 4 or more I'd call. 2.5 I'd fold. In between I'd toss a coin!
I recently pushed for a $70 stack against an aggressive player and he called. We both had Aks and split the pot.
So my final advice to you is call but spike a King just to be on the safe side. ;-)

Deal or No Deal

Ladbrokes and a few other sites offer a 'Deal or No Deal' game aimed I guess at the Bingo crowd on their site. They offer a 10GBP bonus for trying it out. As my account is for US$ I deposited $25 to make sure I covered the full amount ($21 is enough). The minimum game is $1 so you need to play 21 times to clear the bonus.

I didn't calculate the -ev on the game but I'd guess maybe $17 worth of value spread amongst 26 options so you should lose between $5 and $10 playing.
I used the following tactic:
1) Pick a case
2) Click autoselect
3) Take Deal
4) Rinse and repeat.

I lost $5 and made $20. Cash out - play poker.

I think that Coral etc do this so if its +ev there I'll deposit and let Mrs P play a little and I'll give her any winnings and underwrite any losses.

Hello Bankroll!

Whores!

The wife is away and I've got $1000 bucks ready to go in the wee sma' hours of Sunday morning set aside for some whoring activity. I've even set my alarm for 3am for a little 'Happy Hour' fun.

Poker4Ever do two special happy hours where you can deposit and the give you a 10% bonus. It's only available between 2pm and 5pm Eastern time which is bloody annoying. I'm therefore biting the bullet as I suspect I'll be arriving home at sometime in this window and I can set myself up for an easy US$100 bonus.

Obviously with that money I can afford the real McCoy if I was that way inclined.

The Empty - Day 3

You would have been given long odds if you predicted that Ballet or ice skating would get in the way of this weeks poker mission but that's what happened. With a few tickets from work for Swan Lake it was with cautious optimism I attended after hearing glowing reports from the gaffer. I have to say I was rather impressed. Quite a spectacular performance. Those ruskies can skate. I managed a brief session on Poker4Ever after work and tallied another $7. I also took advantage of another promo - more on this later.

After a two and a half hour performance I caught the 11.30pm ferry so it was 12.30am before the computer was sparked up and the first hand dealt. As it was late I decided to gradually build up to three tables. Two 50NL and one 40NL which emptied and was replaced by a 20NL table. Managed to maintain a 10PTBB/100 on all tables for just I guess around 180 table minutes in total. I'm guessing around +$35 but I'll have to check that figure.

All in all another good day with another +$57 day chalked up and my PTBB/100 at Interpoker now upped to around 2.5.

Going Pro! Get real! Planning for 2008

As is now customary whenever I have back to back winning sessions I mull over the 'what if' scenario of using poker as my main source of income. Obviously I'm not anywhere near there at all but I did tinker around with the kinds of figures I'd need to be capable of achieving to do so.

Scenario
I reckon playing 10K hands a week is achievable this might work out as follows;
MT (multi tabling) Ratio: 4
Hands per hour: 80
Hours: 31.25 hours a week

Level: 50NL
1BB/100 = $400 per month = HK$3,120 plus bonus = $10,920
2BB/100 = $800 per month = HK$6,240 = $14,040
4BB/100 = $1,600 per month = HK$12,480 = HK$20,280
6BB/100 = $2,400 per month = HK$18,720 = HK$26,520
8BB/100 = $3,200 per month = HK$24,960 = HK$32,760
10BB/100 = $4,000 per month = HK$31,200 = HK$39,000

Mmmm. That's not enough return for actually working for 31.25 hours a week!

At the lower levels my BB/100 is probably currently between 8 and 10 taking into account all the sites I've played. I'm improving for sure but stepping up as well so will be difficult to maintain these rates.

The received wisdom on poker forums is 100NL is a minimum for supporting yourself. I reckon it could support an extended semi-holiday in the Phillipines though if I was north of 5BB/100 and planning to leave Hong Kong.

Anyway back to reality. For 2008 I intend to set my expectations for any site at 5BB/100. This would work out at (including bonii) US$3,000 per month exactly if I was 4 tabling and playing full time.

Given that I don't have the time and I'm still learning the game and don't want to run 4 tables I can only manage a realistic 1,500 hands per week at the moment eg two tabling for 10 hours a week.

That should equate to $80 a month in bonus. If I can sustain a 5PTBB/100 winrate = $300 a month.
Total of $380 a month x 12 = US$4,560

Last year's target was US$1,000 and I'm likely to above $3,500 by year end.

So my bankroll target (for online play) in 2008 is US$8,000.

Having said that US$10K sounds like a bit more of a challenging goal!

The Empty - Day 2

Well I had to get some exercise in first with my very own personal trainer Fred before starting so it was a 9pm start for me on the poker tables. According to my pre-prepared plan I wanted to get 2 hours in on Poker4Ever and then take a break for half an hour then rack up an hour playing on Interpoker.

Two tabling the 20NL I managed to build up my stack steadily throughout. Finished up $35 to the good which I was very happy about.

For my scheduled break I watched the latest season of High Stakes Poker! Ah the freedom of the empty! The internet connection was patchy so I didn't watch it all but I did get to watch the highest ever pot so far in televised poker history. Good stuff!

I tried again to get PA HUD working on Interpoker but once again failed. With it already being late I didn't have time to tinker so brought up a 50NL and a 40NL table. I got off to a bad start in the 40NL making a dubious river call with 99 on a Q high board when I was up against a pair of Jacks. I thought I might have been up against middle pair or something similar to my own hand.

So I run for most of the session at a deficit with my PTBB lingering under 1PTBB/100 after 4,000 hands. I then take down a couple of big hands on the 50NL table and manage to reclaim my losses on the 40NL table to finish up $38 up by the time the planned hour long session ends. Now I'm still just 40% through my $100 bonus. Bonus whores rates the play at these tables at D+ (Poker4Ever at A-) meaning the games there are much tougher - eg smaller pots with fewer people seeing the flop. I do have the advantage of tracking software at Interpoker but I suspect my +ev will be higher elsewhere. Still I'll grind it out as I need to be able to beat tougher players if I want to step up.

A $73 winning session and all is well in the rather empty place I call home.

With Swan Lake on Ice tonight, footie training tomorrow, the necessity to drink beer on Friday and a wedding on Saturday I doubt I'll be able to rack up any decent sessions until the weekend.

I should have a backlog of hands that I can post come the weekend though for due analysis.

The Empty - Day 1

A peculiarly Scottish word 'an empty' refers to being left in sole charge of the house. Reaching its most important status during the teenage years it once again allows for the loosening of certain restrictions with the removal of domestic duties. This week I intend to ramp up the poker playing and might even manage to frequent a Lamma bar or two as the week rolls on.

I steriotypically arrive home with takeaway from the Thai restaurant. With no little people to attend to I was logged into Poker4Ever by 7.30 and logged in a two hour session as planned.

I finish up $38 up. I take a planned break and spark up the desktop PC to begin working on my Interpoker bonus. Unfortunately I still can't get PAHUD working for some reason so have to make do with Gametime+ to watch my opponents stats. The competition isn't as soft as Poker4Ever and I'm bumbling along just ahead before I take down a sizeable pot. I'm $30 ahead and then seem to face difficult decision after decision and giving all my winnings away and am stuck for almost $30. Meh. A couple of big hands and I end up US$25 up. On the down side my PTBB/100 on Interpoker is dire at just under 1PTBB/100. I seem to be winning on the higher stakes and losing on the lower stakes so I end up winning but having a poor PTBB/100 figure. The bonus is also very slow. Its going to take another 20 sessions to clear the $100 bonus.

I end up playing another 30 minute session with the laptop but I get a cooler in the first five minutes. I've been super aggressive as I've been catching cards. With three 7s on the flop I raised and caught my 10 on the turn. I raised and he called. I'm out of position - he didn't raise preflop so AT is the only hand I'm afraid of. I bet out $5 on the river and he pumps it up to $15. I probably should have let it go there but I guess it was late and I wasn't on the top of my game.

All in all I rack up a $50 gain and clear a few more bonus points. My $/hour average is in double figures and I hope I can keep that going for the rest of the week.

Sharkscope - Stars summary

This seems to be the only site where we all have accounts....

deadlydp
Played: 17
Average Profit:-$2
Average Stake: $5
Average ROI: -36%
Total Profit: -$40
Form: -
PokerStars

Lamma_Jim
Games Played: 56
Average Profit:-$1
Average Stake:$2
Average ROI:-31%
Total Profit: -$38
Form: Tilt
PokerStars

Moocher666
Games Played: 521
Average Profit: $0
Average Stake: $2
Average ROI: -13%
Total Profit: -$211
Form: Tilt
PokerStars

Phillberto01
Games Played: 215
Average Profit: $0
Average Stake: $3
Average ROI: 6%
Total Profit: $44
Form: -
PokerStars

ssammyy
Games Played: 125
Average Profit:$2
Average Stake: $7
Average ROI: 47%
Total Profit:$310
Form: -PokerStars

Bankrolls 26/11

Lamma Poker Exchange: previously 4326 (+142)

Online rolls/profits

1) Deadly $2870 (-30) (nc) (+283) (nc) (-150) (-120) (+140) (+250) (+100) (nc) (+100) (+3) (+123)(-30) (+51) (+205) (+12) (-267) (+1) (+82) (+247) (+169)(+104) (+118)(-59)(+447) (-36) (+35) (+101) (-110) (+257) (+134) (+6) (+117)
2) Phillberto $2813 (+183) (+39) (-19)(-34)(+64) (+173) (+11) (+230)(+23) (+60)(+80)(+41) (+95)(+37) (+148) (+41)(+143) (-117) (+69) (+131) (+150)(-12) (+87) (+243) (+41) (+12) (+231)(+76)(+90) (+50) (+106) (+23) (+133) (+306)
3) Bigshotbog $294 (+4) (+180) (-30) (-25) (-57) (+21) (+46)(+54) (-49)(-50) (-11) (nc) (+81)(-87) (nc)(-33) (-175) (nc) (-49) (nc) (nc) (nc)(nc) (nc)(-6)(nc)(-40) (nc)(nc) (nc) (-150)(nc) (+10) (-264)
4) Lamma_Jim $61 (-9) (nc) (+8) (+15) (-4) (-37) (-1) (-6) (nc) (-2) (+1) (-2) (-3) (+1)
5) Moocher666 $60 (-10) (+20) (+50) (-100) (-80) (nc) (-36) (-13)(-11)(+9) (+16)(-5) (-20) (+180) (-50) (-110)(-110) (nc) (-30) (-41) (-6) (-38)(-35)(-38)(-27) (-105) (nc) (+78) (+4)

Asian Poker Open (Part 2)

Deadly draws table 23 just one away from me. I walk across just prior to the first break and he is struggling at around the 2,000 chip mark.
He returns from the break and finds a playable hand
Deadly raises with Q hearts J hearts and gets a caller.
The one cardrunners video I saw I remember late on in a tourney getting this hand and stacking it. He makes a spiel about it saying that it appears to be a good hand but at this stage you are really looking at getting all your money in (this is related to stack sizes on his table so I'm assuming he would offer the same advice in this situation).
The flop misses Deadly and he pushes and puts the decsision to his opponent.
He gets a fold and a boost to his stack.

Next I hear from him and there are only 25 players left and he is the short stack. Only ten pay so he is looking to be in a tricky situation. He fades out in 22nd position as the blinds take their toll and when he finally makes a stand loses out.

Pretty solid effort though 22nd out of 80 and is the leading Lamma representative!

It's Sunday Deadly returns for more as I spend the day with the family before the fly off.

This time the $500 tourney has 75 entrants.

My battery is dead so I don't get any reports from him until later in the day.

Once again he goes deep. This time the blinds are 200/400 with blinds up to 75. His stack is diminished to 2,500 and each pot starts off with 1,200. The big stack at his table leads out meaning Deadly has commit his stack. Against a loose raiser and with KK he sees a chance to double up and stay alive for a few more rounds. The Big stack turns over a pair of jacks and he is an 80% favourite. A jack lands and Deadly has a bad beat tale to remember for a while.

Final result 18 out of 76.

Maybe more hands from Deadly when he returns.

Asian Poker Open - Results (Part 1)

Back from Macau to hear a Vietnamese Nail Technician (as in beauty therapist) won the US$2,500 tourney. Hachem and Liz Lieu made the final table and the high rollers event kicks off today. I managed just one tournaments...full blow by blow coverage below......
Entry Fee: US$470+30
Stacks are $3,000 and blind levels jump every thirty minutes.


Blinds 25/50 - no playble hands in site and raises on my blinds mean I don't see a flop.
Blinds 50/100 - Two limpers to me in the cut off and I call and hope to see a flop with 67s. The blinds follow me in and its five handed. Flop comes 789 with two clubs showing.
Under the gun plus one sticks in a $400 raise and its folded to me. I have bottom pair and an open ended straight draw. I would have to risk a sizeable percentage of my stack and I could already be drawing dead so I let it go.
Blinds 50/100 - I get another chance to see a hand in the big blind with 3 limpers in.
Flop J92 with two clubs.
Pot: 450
I lead for 300.
I'm called by an aggressive Scandinavian player in early position.
Turn: K diamonds
Pot: 1,150
I bet 500
A weak bet here. I was planning to play it stronger but realised the king could have filled up a higher straight draw.
Scandanavian throws in a raise of 1,200 and I give it up.

My stack size is reduced to about 1,800.

Blinds 75/150
It's folded to me in the cut-off with T8s and I plan to raise 3 times the big blind and bet 300. As soon as I do so I realise my mistake and that I've failed to take into account the latest blind increase making it a min-raise. Ouch. The latest player, who appears to be wearing a bracelet of the poker variety and looks the part pushes all in from the small blind. I fold with my tails between my legs.

I've not been getting any cards at all and I'm not getting respect when I do raise. My stack is down to 1,400 and the blinds already mean I'm in allin preflop territory.

Blinds 75/150 - Chinese guy on my immediate right (UTG+1) raises to $500. I push over the top with Ace Jack spades nd its folded all the way back around to him. I'm looking for a fold here but when he ponders it I'm thinking he may call with a middle pair or slightly better hand that dominates me. He calls and flips over K and T hearts.
I go in as a 61% favourite and noone connects and I'm back up to near my starting stack.

Blinds 100/200
I'm under the gun and I look at Pocket 9's. Its my best hand yet but its still a pretty marginal raising hand. I raise to $600. Folded to Mr Bracelet and he once again pushes on me. He has me covered. I'm pretty sure I'm beat or possibly racing with AK. I give it up and he tells me he did indeed have a big pair.


I reach the first break with a newly diminished stack and join Deadly to compare notes. I'll give you the scoop on his tourney in the next post.

I return from the break. Stack size 2,000 and within a couple of hands the big blinds are folded to me as they do they announce that antes of $25 are to be added to the pot.

Blinds 75/150 antes 25 (8 handed)

Its folded all the way to me to the small blind and its my previous combatant to act.
The pot is already $425
He raises $500.
I look down at pocket 3's. I think he has a pretty wide raising range and I think my 3's are ahead. His pot odds are good hear but I think I have a decent fold equity and I'm a slight favourite anything other than a higher pair.
When he ponders my push I'm pretty sure I'm not going to be a big dog. I'm once again hoping for a fold but at worst I'm going to be racing for my tournament life.
He eventually sticks his money in and flips over J3.

Its as good a situation as I could hope for really and leaves him with just one overcard and me a 67.5% favourite. the luck factor deserts me as a Jack spikes on the flop. I have a runner runner straight possibility and just one out. It's not looking good. My straight possibility vanishes on the turn and my one out fails to show on the river and I'm gone.

Summary: I think in retrospect I may have been better not getting involved with both T8 hands and saved my chips for later. Seems an overpair could well have been paid off and those extra chips could well have given me enough breathing space to find them. I recognised one of the guys at my table from Hong Kong rounders, another guy at my table was across from Bangkok that I had been watching playing on the Lightning automated poker machine at pretty high stakes and he had walked away a stack up. I had a semi-pro from Australia at my table for a while and the wife of an unnamed pro whose husband finished 50th in the US$2,500 event. There were a few weaker players at the table that I noticed so the standard wasn't overly intimidating. I'll be back next year.

Result: I estimate 35th out of 80.

Asian Poker Open - on the way

Catching my ferry in an hour and a half and ready to rumble. Deadly is already in town and may even have managed to catch a SNG by now. Liz Lieu's manager contacted my boss and I've been introduced to her agent so I may even get the chance to meet the Poker Diva while there. Throw in Fernando's - garlic prawns, Sangria, Chrorizo etc and I have myself a cracking weekend lined up. Another week of solid poker to follow. Hell I may even be able to win my buy-in back!

I've left my hat, shades and ipod at home. Too cliched.

I hope my first hand is as dramatic as the first hand in the latest episode of High Stakes Poker.

Raisy Daisy!

Running Hot

Back on Poker4Ever again. Need to clear a bonus at InterPoker but hard to turn my back on a winning run. Didn't have long to play but was up two buyins when I ran into this situation. Appreciate a quick line check on it.

20NL 6 max

limped to me 4 handed in the big blind and I check.
Stack sizes - effectively all $23
Phillberto holds 8h5h
Flop Kh8s6h
Small blind bets pot 0.80
Phillberto raises to 2.40
Fold. Fold
Small blind calls.
Turn 4h
Pot size 5.60
Small blind bets 5.60
Phillberto pushes for $15.

How does it look?

On a second shorter session later I was up against a very aggressive big stack who was prone to overbets and trying to push people around although.

Effective stacks:
One limp
I raise on the button with K8s (hearts) to 0.90.
Bully (Big Blind) raises to $2.30
limper folds
Phillberto calls.
Flop: K86 (two spades).
Pot: 4.90
Bully checks
Phillberto bets pot 4.90
Bully calls
Turn: 2 clubs
Pot: 14.70
I push my final $16.

Thoughts?

Limped pot and me on position. I flat call two big raises with a straight draw and in position. He slows down on the river with around a $6 pot and I raise to $2.40 with K high and he folds.
:-)

Three handed I limp in the blind and the flop is 44Q. I have 45o. He overbets and I call. I'm worried that my 4 is now quite transparent so opt to check behind on the turn. He checks to me so I make a value bet of 3/4 pot and he calls and mucks letting me take an $11 pot down.

We now have similar size of stacks (US50+) and I'm all for trying to felt him but its a big poker weekend and Mrs P insists its bedtime.

Another winning session

Two tabled for under an hour again last night and managed to chalk up another win on both tables. Doubled up on the first table and had lost half my buyin on the other but bought in for another $2 to ensure I covered everyone I had position on. Hit the second nut flush to double up and ended up winning on the second table too taking me up to $1,100 in my Poker4Ever account. Not bad for a $200 deposit.

Never managed to watch the MTT cardrunners video I downloaded. Maybe tonight for that.
Also have the latest episode of HSP to watch too. Good stuff. I think Moocher is stuck across in Dubai for a while. Any online action elsewhere?

Poker4Ever - Next Live Game

Managed just a short session last night as I went training to try and keep my weightloss objective on track. 20 minutes was good for $12 though. I also got a reply from Interpoker who have said they will manually credit me my bonus when I complete the requirements. I'm about 40% through the requirements and have an empty with the rest of the family off to the Philippines for 10 days.

I am of course hoping that a Live game will come together next weekend. I believe Casa Deadly has been touted as a venue. What time shall we start then?

Anyone else in for the last longer Macau bet?

Asian Poker Open - Macau bound

So it looks like there are only two Lamma representatives in Macau this weekend and neither Deadly nor myself will be competing in the main event. We'll both be playing in a US$500 game on the Saturday and a SNG on the Sunday.

As there are a few big names of the poker world in town I may be a railbird for part of the time. I'm also up for a last longest side bet with anyone. I'll put HK$100 on Barry Greenstein. Happy to go with a head to head with someone or indeed we can throw in together to make a winner takes all pot. Anyone?

Also in the last episode of High Stakes Poker we had a situation arise where without revealing too much we had two 'representatives' clash in an all-in pot. The agreed wager was HK$50. Now in this occasion the duelees choose to run the river card three times.
This leaves three possibilities in the event of a 2/1 win for someone.
a) Counts as a felting - payup fella!
b) Loser pays two thirds of fifty dalla is the fair result.
c) It isn't technically a felting so no money is paid.

I think to be fair only people that haven't seen the episode yet can answer. As we live in Hong Kong it is only fair that democracy is not involed in settling this therefore the first person to answer with a) b) or c) can decide the solution which will be adhered to on all other situations.

As for online poker I managed an hour or so last night single tabling 20NL. Taking a break from mutli-tabling worked out well and after dropping 60% of my stack early and buying in for another $20 I managed to work my stack up to just shy of $100 before calling it a night. I did multitable a $4.40 Stars MTT early though and managed to have QQ lose to AA, KK beat AA, managed to somehow accidentally fold QQ in a three way pot that I would have taken down before losing with AK to 55 in a race.

Updated Tournament Rankings

Tournament rankings:

Bigshot goes deep in a $20 deep stack tournament. Chip leader with just six left on a school night and domestic pressures mounting he crashes out in order to avoid a sleepless night of toil. Taking down a $186 win though he can't complain. Currently the only person to be showing a positive return on investment in tournament play he currently holds three titles (see below).

Bigshot: 53,304 of 671,036
ROI: +23%
Phillberto: 168,526 of 671,036
ROI:-2%
Moocher 346,256 of 671,036
ROI: -24%

Biggest online winner:
1)Deadlydp

Biggest Live winner
1) BigshotBog

Best online tournament player
1) BigshotBog

Biggest Casino winner
1) BigshotBog

Updated rolls -

Lamma Poker Exchange: 4184(+247)
Online rolls/profits
1) Deadly $2900 (nc) (+283) (nc) (-150) (-120) (+140) (+250) (+100) (nc) (+100) (+3) (+123)(-30) (+51) (+205) (+12) (-267) (+1) (+82) (+247) (+169)(+104) (+118)(-59)(+447) (-36) (+35) (+101) (-110) (+257) (+134) (+6) (+117)
2) Phillberto $2630 (+39) (-19)(-34)(+64) (+173) (+11) (+230)(+23) (+60)(+80)(+41) (+95)(+37) (+148) (+41)(+143) (-117) (+69) (+131) (+150)(-12) (+87) (+243) (+41) (+12) (+231)(+76)(+90) (+50) (+106) (+23) (+133) (+306)
3) Bigshotbog $290 (+180) (-30) (-25) (-57) (+21) (+46)(+54) (-49)(-50) (-11) (nc) (+81)(-87) (nc)
(-33) (-175) (nc) (-49) (nc) (nc) (nc)(nc) (nc)(-6)(nc)(-40) (nc)(nc) (nc) (-150)(nc) (+10) (-264)
4) Moocher666 $70 (+20) (+50) (-100) (-80) (nc) (-36) (-13)(-11)(+9) (+16)(-5) (-20) (+180) (-50) (-110)(-110) (nc) (-30) (-41) (-6) (-38)(-35)(-38)(-27) (-105) (nc) (+78) (+4)
5) Lamma_Jim $70 (nc) (+8) (+15) (-4) (-37) (-1) (-6) (nc) (-2) (+1) (-2) (-3) (+1)

Moneymaker

Picked up the Moneymaker story in a second hand book shop in Lantau at the weekend if anyone fancies reading it. Pretty interesting tale giving his exploits in the Satellite tournament, main event and his earlier sports betting obsession.

Mrs Phillberto also picked up WPT Europe magazine as it was won by an 18 Year old girl who seems shit hot and is a top ranked online player. Moocher do you still have Deadly's mags? We need to arrange a swap.

Happy to trade any poker related fact or fiction with anyone. Rounders DVD anyone? I've not heard anyone say 'that's a positional raise' in a russian accent recently.

October Summary

Monthly totals:

1) Phillberto: Oct: +203 Sep: +434 Aug: +321 July: +226 June: +468 May +360 Aprl: +269 Mrch (2 wks): +442
Average: +363 per month
2) Deadly - Oct - -130 Sep: +453 Aug: + 349 July: -172 June: +638 May: +389 April: +382 Mrch (2wks) : +123
Average: +270 per month
3) Lamma_Jim Oct: -26 Sep: -10 Aug: -2 (2 wks)
Average: -15 per month
4) Moocher: Oct: -160 Sep: -21 Aug: 0 July -140 June: -120 May: -170 April (2 weeks): +81
Average: -81 per month
5) Bigshot: Oct: -15 Sep: -56 Aug -39 July: -224 June: 0 May: -46 April -150 March (2 weeks) -254 (-705)
Average: -105 per month

Rolls - as of 12 November

Lamma Poker Exchange: 3937 (+299)

Online rolls/profits
1) Deadly $2900 (+283) (nc) (-150) (-120) (+140) (+250) (+100) (nc) (+100) (+3) (+123)(-30) (+51) (+205) (+12) (-267) (+1) (+82) (+247) (+169)(+104) (+118)(-59)(+447) (-36) (+35) (+101) (-110) (+257) (+134) (+6) (+117)
2) Phillberto $2591 (-19)(-34)(+64) (+173) (+11) (+230)(+23) (+60)(+80)(+41) (+95)(+37) (+148) (+41)(+143) (-117) (+69) (+131) (+150)(-12) (+87) (+243) (+41) (+12) (+231)(+76)(+90) (+50) (+106) (+23) (+133) (+306)
3) Bigshotbog $110 (-30) (-25) (-57) (+21) (+46)(+54) (-49)(-50) (-11) (nc) (+81)(-87) (nc) (-33) (-175) (nc) (-49) (nc) (nc) (nc)(nc) (nc)(-6)(nc)(-40) (nc)(nc) (nc) (-150)(nc) (+10) (-264)
4) Moocher666 $50 (+50) (-100) (-80) (nc) (-36) (-13)(-11)(+9) (+16)(-5) (-20) (+180) (-50) (-110)(-110) (nc) (-30) (-41) (-6) (-38)(-35)(-38)(-27) (-105) (nc) (+78) (+4)
5) Lamma_Jim $62 (+15) (-13) (-15) (+4) (-37) (-1) (-6) (nc) (-2) (+1) (-2) (-3) (+1)


Once I add those in I can calculate the October +/- figures for all.

Rolls - as of 5th November

Lamma Poker Exchange: 3638 (-172)

Online rolls/profits
1) Deadly $2617 (nc) (-150) (-120) (+140) (+250) (+100) (nc) (+100) (+3) (+123)(-30) (+51) (+205) (+12) (-267) (+1) (+82) (+247) (+169)(+104) (+118)(-59)(+447) (-36) (+35) (+101) (-110) (+257) (+134) (+6) (+117)
2) Phillberto $2610 (-34)(+64) (+173) (+11) (+230)(+23) (+60)(+80)(+41) (+95)(+37) (+148) (+41)(+143) (-117) (+69) (+131) (+150)(-12) (+87) (+243) (+41) (+12) (+231)(+76)(+90) (+50) (+106) (+23) (+133) (+306)
3) Bigshotbog $140 (-25) (-57) (+21) (+46)(+54) (-49)(-50) (-11) (nc) (+81)(-87) (nc) (-33)
(-175) (nc) (-49) (nc) (nc) (nc)(nc) (nc)(-6)(nc)(-40) (nc)(nc) (nc) (-150)(nc) (+10) (-264)
4) Moocher666 $0 (-100) (-80) (nc) (-36) (-13)(-11)(+9) (+16)(-5) (-20) (+180) (-50) (-110)
(-110) (nc) (-30) (-41) (-6) (-38)(-35)(-38)(-27) (-105) (nc) (+78) (+4)
5) Lamma_Jim $70 (+8) (+15) (-4) (-37) (-1) (-6) (nc) (-2) (+1) (-2) (-3) (+1)

Bigshot - Live in Canada

In the interests of accuracy across the board I think we need to start a tally of live poker winnings or losses. It may only include Bigshot who is managed a number of trips to the local casino during his trip home. I believe he turned defeat into sweet victory on the final day. Care to share your estimate of winnings Bigshot? If you remember anything about the big hand that would be a bonus.

After lunch in the FCC with Bigshot I've updated all figures with an estimate from him of HK$2,400 win so the Casino live tally so far looks like this.....(drum-roll).

Bigshot +$2,400

End message.

Catching Up

As I've been a bit lax in keeping the blog up to date I'd appreciate if everyone can post their bankrolls for the past couple of weeks as of Monday morning. Guesses are better than no figure at all. I do have some figures from a couple of weeks ago so should be able to get back up to speed soon.

A few hands from lunch that I can post. I bought into a 50NL table for $35. After folding for a while I eventually raised from the cutoff with 45o and was reraised to gave it up. After folding for a bit more I then played a hand from the cutoff with 89o and had two callers. The flop was K76 and I bet pot and got one caller. The turn was a beautiful 9 and I bet out for 3/4 pot for $8 which left the perfect amount for an under pot sized push on the river. I'm guessing I was up against two pairs or trips that saw me as overplaying AK or maybe it even was an overplayed big slick he held - who knows.

Now with a stack of $54 I almost immediately ran into AA and raised and got a caller from the big blinds who had $18 behind. A dry flop of Jxx with no draws and I faced a pot sized bet of $4.50. I called and another nothing card showed. He pushed for his final $12. I called and my pocket rockets were way behind his flopped trip Jacks. Should I have put him on trips here and folded that last bet? I suspect KK and QQ would have reraised. I was expecting it to be AJ or trips.

Now down once again (this is all in a 15minute session) I managed to climb back up to positive territory. Playing four handed I raise once again in the cutoff with a borderline hand this time K6s. My raise has two callers. The flop comes J62 with two hearts giving me the flush draw. One check and the remaining short stack makes an overbet push for $10. I think I'm likely to be ahead with probably 14 outs twice so call. The turn is a six and he turns over absolutely nothing for a pure bluff. Lunch is over and I add $15 to my bankroll.

Live - Winners and Losers

Bigshot +1228
Deadly +898
Spicer +520
Sham +506
Pete +210
Jack -34
Jan - 150
Steve -152
American Chris -400
Lamma_Jim -442
Phillberto -1118
Dave - 1150

Both Deadly and Spicer climb above Sham to secure second and third spot. Bigshot stays top of the pile and Phillberto manages to climb off bottom spot. Lamma_Jim may be difficult to persuade to return. Like the Scottish Don will be finding his own place in the ranking before long after he takes a few dalla off of Moocher at Backgammon.

Live with the Tight Bunch

It's been a while. With a work and holiday taking precidence poker was put on the back burner for a bit. Below are the final results for the live session.

Moocher +380
Spice Boy +182
Phillberto +180
DeadlyDP +174
Bigshot +0
Sham - 400
Lamma_Jim -442

I'll post the hands of note that I can remember but I'm sure plenty lost in the mists of time. Remind away.

Spice Boy versus Moocher
A pretty sizeable pot was built up by Moocher and Spice calls. Moocher follows up with a big bet on the river and sees a quick call by the Spice fellow. Moocher looks gum when the call in announced and seems resigned to defeat. Spicer takes the plaudits when he shows an underpair to the board. He put Moocher on precisely nothing and was well rewarded for his excellent reading.

Bigshot v Lamma_Jim v Moocher
The biggest pot yet in Lamma's short history. With a flush draw showing on the flop the money started going in. The turn saw the flush draw completed and the betting didn't let up with Bigshot the aggressor and Lamma_Jim and Moocher tagging along. With the board pairing on the river it made for an exciting finale. When Bigshot bet out for $80 (?) he got a semi-reluctant call from Lamma_Jim who obviously would have preferred a smaller bet. His call was enough to see Moocher give up though (wisely as he later revealed two pairs as his holding). Bigshot turned over a Jack high flush. His aggressive value betting paid off and he faced a weak hand from LammaJim who was only able to match a 9 on the board with his pocket cards. I believe that resulted in a pot in the region of $350 but any more accurate memories our there?

Phillberto v Sham
A limped pot and a flop of Txx. Phillberto bet out and got two callers. A second Ten on the turn and it was down to two-way. The river didn't complete any flushes or straights and Sham bets out for $10. Phillberto makes a small value raise to $40 and is called. Both show a ten but Sham loses out with an 8 kicker against a Q.

Moocher v Phillberto
In a limped pot and the flop coming KK3 Moocher puts in overpotsized raise of $20. Phillberto reraises to $50 and Moocher calls. Phillberto bets $50 on an undercard on the turn. and Moocher puts a minimum raise on the turn. Phillberto toys with a reraise but decided to let it slide and gives up the hand. Moocher takes down the pot and later claims to have 67o and was behind to a mighty 89s.

Phillberto v Bigshot
Phillberto raises and c-bets on the flop and is called by Bigshot. A flushdraw lands and Phillberto makes a tentative raise and is called. When Phillberto checks on the river Bigshot bets out for $80 no doubt expecting a fold but Phillberto calls with a baby flush to take the hand and Bigshot shows a 9 for a second pair.

Moocher v Spice Boy #2 #3 #4
With the play down to 4 handed and only 20 minutes to go Moocher staged a dramatic recovery. In quick succession these two tangled and thrice Spicer was forced to much his cards.

Phillberto v Moocher #2 #3
With a reinvigorated stack and back in black Moocher starts to play with confident abandon. He calls a button raise from Phillberto who holds QQ.
Flop comes Jxx with a heart flush draw showing. Phillberto bets out at 3/4 pot and Moocher calls. A heart lands on the turn and Phillberto bets out at just over half pot and faces a reraise. Its a tough decision and with pretty sizeable stacks behind us I have to lay it down. Moocher shows a J6 of hearts and I managed to escape relatively unscathed. Moocher takes another pot with a raise on the turn and once again claims to have held the goods after Phillberto mucks.


Seems another session may be in the offing sooner rather than later.

Lamma Poker Exchange: ...............3810 (-16)

Tournament rankings:
1) Phillberto 125,898 of 644,978 previously 124,402 of 637,345
2) Bigshot 283,321 of 644,978 previously 291,457 of 637,345
3) Moocher 307,601 of 644,978 previously 301,496 of 637,345

Online rolls/profits
1) Phillberto $2644 (+64) (+173) (+11) (+230)(+23) (+60)(+80)(+41) (+95)(+37) (+148) (+41)(+143) (-117) (+69) (+131) (+150)(-12) (+87) (+243) (+41) (+12) (+231)(+76)(+90) (+50) (+106) (+23) (+133) (+306)
2) Deadly $2617 (-150) (-120) (+140) (+250) (+100) (nc) (+100) (+3) (+123)(-30) (+51) (+205) (+12) (-267) (+1) (+82) (+247) (+169)(+104) (+118)(-59)(+447) (-36) (+35) (+101) (-110) (+257) (+134) (+6) (+117)
3) Bigshotbog $165 (-57) (+21) (+46)(+54) (-49)(-50) (-11) (nc) (+81)(-87) (nc) (-33) (-175) (nc) (-49) (nc) (nc) (nc)(nc) (nc)(-6)(nc)(-40) (nc)(nc) (nc) (-150)(nc) (+10) (-264)
4) Moocher666 $100 (-80) (nc) (-36) (-13)(-11)(+9) (+16)(-5) (-20) (+180) (-50) (-110)(-110) (nc) (-30) (-41) (-6) (-38)(-35)(-38)(-27) (-105) (nc) (+78) (+4)
5) Lamma_Jim $62 (+15) (-4) (-37) (-1) (-6) (nc) (-2) (+1) (-2) (-3) (+1)

**Moocher owes Phillberto $475

Well here is the Live Bankroll Summary.

Bigshot: +1228 (-250)
Sham: +906 (-32)
Deadly: +724 (+416)
Spicer: +338 (+338)
Pete: +$210 (nc)
Jack the Lad: -$34 (+0)
Moocher: -94 (-200)
Jan: -$150 (nc)
Steve: -152 (-152)
American Chris: -400 (nc)
Dave: -$1150 (nc)
Phillberto: -$1298 (-218)

A few hands of note that I recall below. Any others?
Bigshot v Sham
Two spades on the flop. Bigshot bets out and Sham calls. The flush draw gets there and Bigshot bets again with Sham calling. A fourth spade falls and Bogshot checks. Sham bets out and Bigshot raises all in. Sham calls and shows a baby flush with 8 spades completing the flush. Bigshot shows Q3 and his bluff doesn't work out.
A brave or foolhardy call by Sham? Either way he felts Bigshot and ensures he suffers neglible losses.
Spicer v Moocher
A raised pot. Flop shows possible flush draw. Spicer bets out and is called by Moocher creating a sizeable pot. The flush draw hits and Spicer checks. Moocher bets out and is check raised allin. He calls and flips over trips. Its not enough as Spicer shows the nut flush. He is left with a number of outs though and spikes a queen on the river to felt Mr Spicer and rubs salt in the wound with an impromptu victory dance.
Phillberto v Deadly
Phillberto raises to $26 from the button. Deadly calls. Flop Kxx. Deadly checks. Phillberto checks. Turn brings another another undercard. Deadly checks and Phillberto bets 3/4 pot. Deadly calls. The river doesn't appear to help anyone and Deadly bets out for $40 more. Phillberto calls and both show pocket Q's to split the pot.
Phillberto v Bigshot
Multi-way limped pot to Phillberto in the big blind who raises and gets called by Sham and Moocher. Flop 9xx. Phillberto follows up with a bet and is put allin by Bigshot. Sham folds and Phillberto is left with a tough call of $60 to win $260. After his limp I put him on a middle pair and call with pocket 7's. My read is write but pocket 8's edge me out and I'm felted.
Moocher v Deadly v Steve
Shortstacked Steve pushes over the top of everyone with no real aggression being shown. With his tight image a fold might be expected but he is immediately called by Deadly. Moocher also calls. Moocher bets out on a non descript flop with all low cards and Deadly calls. A Queen hits on the turn and Moocher pushes allin. He is called by Deadly who tables AQ to take the pot against an unlikely holding of Moocher's that only just connected with a small pair.

Decent game anyway. Decent standard of play and very enjoyable. Winning would have been a bonus of course.

Lamma Poker Exchange: ...............3826(+78)

Bigshot checks in from the hotel above Korea's only casino. He's planning a trip down to take on the Korean underworld and left over GI's from back in the day. Online he begins to make the transition to cash and his roll continues to grow.
Deadly steps up to 100NL and loses to a suckout.
Phillberto steps up to 40NL and then conservatively steps right back down to 20NL after chalking up a run of preflop allins with big pairs that all holdup.
Moocher by the looks of it spent his entire weekend at the virtual felt. Despite scoring a 3rd place, 2nd place and win at the $3.00+0.30 45 man Star tourneys it is a break even week.
All quiet from el Jeem Grande.

Tournament rankings:
Phillberto 124,402 of 637,345 previously 123,013 of 629,198
Bigshot 291,457 of 637,345 previously 287,843 of 629,198
Moocher 301,496 of 637,345 previously 311,631 of 629,198

1) Deadly $2767 (-120) (+140) (+250) (+100) (nc) (+100) (+3) (+123)(-30) (+51) (+205) (+12) (-267) (+1) (+82) (+247) (+169)(+104) (+118)(-59)(+447) (-36) (+35) (+101) (-110) (+257) (+134) (+6) (+117)
2) Phillberto $2580 (+173) (+11) (+230)(+23) (+60)(+80)(+41) (+95)(+37) (+148) (+41)(+143) (-117) (+69) (+131) (+150)(-12) (+87) (+243) (+41) (+12) (+231)(+76)(+90) (+50) (+106) (+23) (+133) (+306)
3) Bigshotbog $222 (+21) (+46)(+54) (-49)(-50) (-11) (nc) (+81)(-87) (nc) (-33) (-175) (nc)
(-49) (nc) (nc) (nc)(nc) (nc)(-6)(nc)(-40) (nc)(nc) (nc) (-150)(nc) (+10) (-264)
4) Moocher666 $180 (nc) (-36) (-13)(-11)(+9) (+16)(-5) (-20) (+180) (-50) (-110)(-110) (nc) (-30) (-41) (-6) (-38)(-35)(-38)(-27) (-105) (nc) (+78) (+4)
5) Lamma_Jim $47 (-4) (-37) (-1) (-6) (nc) (-2) (+1) (-2) (-3) (+1)

**Moocher owes Phillberto $475

The Roll Bowl

Lamma Poker Exchange: ...............3748 (+124)

So Deadly continues to chalk up a good run of profitable weeks. I struggle with a small profit despite scoring a $50 bonus. Moocher steps up from his $1 games again only to see it eat into his remaining bankroll. Bigshot overtakes Moocher to take over third spot and Lamma_Jim is a late result.

Tournament rankings:
Phillberto 123,013 of 629,198
Bigshot 287,843 of 629,198
Moocher 311,631 of 629,198

1) Deadly $2887 (+140) (+250) (+100) (nc) (+100) (+3) (+123)(-30) (+51) (+205) (+12) (-267) (+1) (+82) (+247) (+169)(+104) (+118)(-59)(+447) (-36) (+35) (+101) (-110) (+257) (+134) (+6) (+117)
2) Phillberto $2407 (+11) (+230)(+23) (+60)(+80)(+41) (+95)(+37) (+148) (+41)(+143) (-117) (+69) (+131) (+150)(-12) (+87) (+243) (+41) (+12) (+231)(+76)(+90) (+50) (+106) (+23) (+133) (+306)
3) Bigshotbog $201 (+46)(+54) (-49)(-50) (-11) (nc) (+81)(-87) (nc) (-33) (-175) (nc) (-49) (nc) (nc) (nc)(nc) (nc)(-6)(nc)(-40) (nc)(nc) (nc) (-150)(nc) (+10) (-264)
4) Moocher666 $180 (-36) (-13)(-11)(+9) (+16)(-5) (-20) (+180) (-50) (-110)(-110) (nc) (-30) (-41) (-6) (-38)(-35)(-38)(-27) (-105) (nc) (+78) (+4)
5) Lamma_Jim $51 (-37) (-1) (-6) (nc) (-2) (+1) (-2) (-3) (+1)

**Moocher owes Phillberto $475

I'm Interpoker

Well managed to lose $48 in the process of clearing a $50 bonus last night. In my first round at the table on 50NL I was put allin pre-flop by 77 holding pocket rockets.

Seven on the flop meant I was never likely to be chalking up a winning session although I did win 2/3rds of it back before losing again.

Signed up for Interpoker on the Cryptologic network this morning and began the task of clearing another $100. Started on a 10NL table to accustomise myself to the software and despite a decent session chalked up a $10 loss. Oops.

Was playing on a 20NL table and right at the end of a slightly profitable session this hand came up.

Edmu was semi-loose and very aggressive post-flop.


Game #5796586034: Hold'em NL (£0.10/£0.20) - 2007/10/06 - 09:27:46 (UK)
Table "Ann" Seat 2 is the button.
Seat 1: Edmu24101 (£37.70 in chips)
Seat 2: Upthereds sits out
Seat 3: Dan160324 (£33 in chips)
Seat 4: Phillbert (£33.05 in chips)
Seat 5: Hank (£22.58 in chips)
Seat 6: _jpffc_ (£4.03 in chips)
Dan160324: posts small blind £0.10
Phillbert: posts big blind £0.20
----- HOLE CARDS -----
dealt to Phillbert [Kh Ks]
Hank: folds
_jpffc_: calls £0.20
Edmu24101: raises to £0.60
Dan160324: calls £0.50
Phillbert: raises to £2.40
_jpffc_: folds
Edmu24101: calls £1.80
Dan160324: calls £1.80
----- FLOP ----- [Tc 9s 8s]
Dan160324: bets £0.60
Phillbert: raises to £3.75
Edmu24101: calls £3.75
Dan160324: calls £3.15
----- TURN ----- [Tc 9s 8s][3h]
Dan160324: checks
Upthereds sits back
Phillbert: checks
Edmu24101: bets £5
Dan160324: calls £5
Phillbert: raises to £26.90 and is all-in.

What do you think?

September - Monthly Summary

So the figures are as follows:
Your monthly +/-
Your average monthly win/loss rate
The numbers in brackets are how your average monthly win/loss rate has changed over previous months. So positive figures can mean an increased win rate OR decreased loss rate.

1) Phillberto: Sep: +434 Aug: +321 July: +226 June: +468 May +360 Aprl: +269 Mrch (2 wks): +442 Average: +388 (+9) (-13)

2) Deadly - Sep: +453 Aug: + 349 July: -172 June: +638 May: +389 April: +382 Mrch (2wks) : +123
Average: +333 (+23) (+8)

3) Lamma_Jim Oct: -42 Sep: -7 Aug: -2 (2 wks)
Average: -21

4) Moocher: Sep: -21 Aug: 0 July -140 June: -120 May: -170 April (2 weeks): +81
Average: -$67 (+10) (+50)

5) Bigshot: Sep: -56 Aug -39 July: -224 June: 0 May: -46 April -150 March (2 weeks) -254
Average: -118 (+9) (+20)

Fresh Rolls

Lamma Poker Exchange: ...............3624 (+520)

So a solid week for the Lamma Poker Exchange. Tournament ranking slide for Phillberto and Moocher while Bigshot starts to climb back up the ladder. The race to reach US$3K starts to heat up and Bigshot now has Moocher in his sights. Lamma_Jim props up the bottom but it looks like has his bankroll has a bit of life in it yet.

Update tournament ranking for tourney people.
Moocher666 Rank: 101,509 of 623,801 (previously 94,992 of 616,641)
Phillberto01 121,905 of 623,801 (previously 119,577 of 616,641)
BigshotBog 285,790 of 623,801 (previously 317,043 of 616,641 )http://www.officialpokerrankings.com/

1) Deadly $2747 (+250) (+100) (nc) (+100) (+3) (+123)(-30) (+51) (+205) (+12) (-267) (+1) (+82) (+247) (+169)(+104) (+118)(-59)(+447) (-36) (+35) (+101) (-110) (+257) (+134) (+6) (+117)
2) Phillberto $2396 (+230)(+23) (+60)(+80)(+41) (+95)(+37) (+148) (+41)(+143) (-117) (+69) (+131) (+150)(-12) (+87) (+243) (+41) (+12) (+231)(+76)(+90) (+50) (+106) (+23) (+133) (+306)
3) Moocher666 $216 (-13)(-11)(+9) (+16)(-5) (-20) (+180) (-50) (-110)(-110) (nc) (-30) (-41) (-6) (-38)(-35)(-38)(-27) (-105) (nc) (+78) (+4)
4) Bigshotbog $155 (+54) (-49)(-50) (-11) (nc) (+81)(-87) (nc) (-33) (-175) (nc) (-49) (nc) (nc) (nc)(nc) (nc)(-6)(nc)(-40) (nc)(nc) (nc) (-150)(nc) (+10) (-264)
5) Lamma_Jim $88 (-1) (-6) (nc) (-2) (+1) (-2) (-3) (+1)

**Moocher owes Phillberto $475

Stack on the line - Results to follow

This is probably the only guy that I try and avoid on Poker4ever. It was the only table on the go though so I decided to get involved.

Reads: Brader seems to be one of the best players on the site. Always seems to have 4 or 5 stacks (and multi-tables) often at higher stakes. Can be very aggressive, can be tricky and can make bluffs (as well as well sized value bets).

5 handed 20NL
Brader 100.00
MP1 12.00
Phillberto (button) 16.00
SB 8.00
BB 60.00
Dealt to Phillberto (9dTd)
Brader bets 0.80
MP1 calls
Phillberto calls
SB folds
BB folds
Flop Qc Js 8h
(Pot 2.70)
Brader checks
MP1 Checks
Phillberto bets 1.80
Brader checks
MP1 folds
Turn Kh
(Pot 6.30)
Brader checks
Phillberto bets 2.40
Brader calls
River: 6 hearts
(Pot 11.10)
Brader checks
Phillberto bets 7.00
Brader reraises allin (for my last 4.00)
Phillberto calls

Advice on bet sizes and his likely hand range. Lets hear it.

4ever is a long time

Managed to clear my Poker4Ever $200 bonus during the mid-Autumn Festival. Edged my account up by another $40 in the process. I have a second bonus that should have kicked in automatically for another $50 (I've emailed support to sort out). With a bit of luck that will take me over the 3K mark (taking into account money lent to Moocher). With my monthly average being pretty consistant it looks like my next challenge will be to hit 4k in time for the bells chiming at midnight on Hogmanay. Mind you if I'm playing anywhere near midnight on Hogmanay I think it is more likely I'll have a bankroll of $0 and vague memories of moving allin with 7-2 UTG after sensing weakness in everyone else.

Had another try at a couple of $1 MTT on Stars. Was big chip leader at one stage and got allin preflop with AK v AJ and lost when a J hits on the river. Then put a short stack allin with 77 v 88 and lost. I lost another race and went out. From hero to zero in record time.

Need to assess my next move now to continue my bonus whoring ways.

Asian Poker Open Satellite in Lamma!

How about it?

For starters how about a $250 buy in SNG. If we get 8 people then winner get a buy-in for a $2000 SNG in Macau.

If that works well we could even look at having a Satellite for the $10,000 man tournament with Lamma sending our own representative. That would suit me. Maybe 5 of us putting in $2000 each and then the losers can still go and play the SNG side-events.

That would also make it easy for certain people to justify their trip because they won it. If you lose you of course don't mention it!

So I'm looking at
2 Lamma Satellites for SNG games ($500) in advance...
$2000 Lamma Satellite for $10,000 tourney entry (play on Friday maybe in Macau?)
HK$500 Satellite on Friday night
HK$2000 SNG on Saturday
HK$2000 SNG on Sunday.

So a maximum spend of HK$7,000.
Accommodation plus tournament fees and transport HK$2,000.

A bit of F&B it would work out maybe around 10K for the weekend.