Deadly Hands

Quote Deadly
"Some Hands last night. Around 11pm I decided i needed some poker action as I hadn't played since coming back from Macau.Went for the quick rush of HU 50NL on Cardoza.First game. Me $50, opponent $70. Dealt to me KQ (club and heart I think)He smooth calls on the button I repop to $2 - he calls.Flop is KdQd10sI bet pot - $4he calls - $4Turn is 3sI bet pot - $12He calls - $12River is 10d (scare card in every way)I check, he checksHe had Ad7d and takes it down. What to do different here?
My goodness I had exactly the same hand last night up to the turn. I had position though. He bet out and I raised on the flop. He bet again and I pushed on the turn. He showed KT and spiked the ten on the river!
As played I think its fine. Was your plan to check/call? Against an aggressive opponent prone to bluffing you may consider sticking in a blocking bet in on the river. Next handI am dealt Qh9hRaise on the button to 1.75 -he calls.Flop is Kxx all hearts.I bet - $3He raises to $19 - pot betI re-raise all in - my remaining $27 or so.(I put him on a big flush draw - and I don't have enough behind to do much more)He calls and shows Ah3hWhat are the chances?He then sits out. Types "sorrz"
Standard. You can't worry about getting overflushed there. Get your money in. I try to get him to play for a while but no dice. He is sitting out on 3 tables.I find another table. This time the villian AAungarAA (i don't think it's him) was sat with $148.We low ball it for quite a while - back and forth until this hand.Me A10 suited - I forget which.Flop is A,10 x.I raised pre-flop and bet pot on every street. River was a 10 and I take down a chunk of change. I'm now on $95 ish and he is at $80 ishThen.Dealt KK on the button.I raise to 2.25 - I vary my raises so much as the slide bar control is tricky :-)He repops to $10 or so. I repop him to $30+ and of course he goes all in. What do you do here?".

Mmm tricky one.
His range is obviously pretty narrow. AA, KK, AK.
Against that range your only slightly behind (47%) with money in the pot.
With that range its a call but...........
AK while quite possible depending on the player he may chicken out here and fold or flat-call (poor play).
It's really a read dependent decision. From the previous hand he's shown he's willing to call down big pots without the nuts so he does have some gamble in him.
If we assumed that he would only make the play with Aces or AKs you become a big dog at 30%. You are calling maybe $40 to win $120 and getting odds of 3-1.
So if you run it 100 times then 70 times you lose $80 (-$5600)
30 times you win ($+2400)
Ev: -3,200
if you fold always then you lose $35 x 100 = -$3500
So if that range is accurate then a call is slightly better.
On the other hand.....
- According to Harrington the fourth raise is always Pocket Aces. (He also says assign 10% bluff ratio always though).
Fold.
But...........
- It's headsup. His range is likely bigger.
Pro calling
- if you gamble you are more likely to get paid off in future.
pro folding
- It may put you on tilt.
I'd probably make a call based on poker tracker stats. Aggression 4 or more I'd call. 2.5 I'd fold. In between I'd toss a coin!
I recently pushed for a $70 stack against an aggressive player and he called. We both had Aks and split the pot.
So my final advice to you is call but spike a King just to be on the safe side. ;-)