As is now customary whenever I have back to back winning sessions I mull over the 'what if' scenario of using poker as my main source of income. Obviously I'm not anywhere near there at all but I did tinker around with the kinds of figures I'd need to be capable of achieving to do so.
Scenario
I reckon playing 10K hands a week is achievable this might work out as follows;
MT (multi tabling) Ratio: 4
Hands per hour: 80
Hours: 31.25 hours a week
Level: 50NL
1BB/100 = $400 per month = HK$3,120 plus bonus = $10,920
2BB/100 = $800 per month = HK$6,240 = $14,040
4BB/100 = $1,600 per month = HK$12,480 = HK$20,280
6BB/100 = $2,400 per month = HK$18,720 = HK$26,520
8BB/100 = $3,200 per month = HK$24,960 = HK$32,760
10BB/100 = $4,000 per month = HK$31,200 = HK$39,000
Mmmm. That's not enough return for actually working for 31.25 hours a week!
At the lower levels my BB/100 is probably currently between 8 and 10 taking into account all the sites I've played. I'm improving for sure but stepping up as well so will be difficult to maintain these rates.
The received wisdom on poker forums is 100NL is a minimum for supporting yourself. I reckon it could support an extended semi-holiday in the Phillipines though if I was north of 5BB/100 and planning to leave Hong Kong.
Anyway back to reality. For 2008 I intend to set my expectations for any site at 5BB/100. This would work out at (including bonii) US$3,000 per month exactly if I was 4 tabling and playing full time.
Given that I don't have the time and I'm still learning the game and don't want to run 4 tables I can only manage a realistic 1,500 hands per week at the moment eg two tabling for 10 hours a week.
That should equate to $80 a month in bonus. If I can sustain a 5PTBB/100 winrate = $300 a month.
Total of $380 a month x 12 = US$4,560
Last year's target was US$1,000 and I'm likely to above $3,500 by year end.
So my bankroll target (for online play) in 2008 is US$8,000.
Having said that US$10K sounds like a bit more of a challenging goal!
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2 comments:
My advice to you would be to think about playing PLO or another game. NLHE is swamped with "good" players and you will struggle to get much above 5bb at any level other than $50. You need to find a level where you are the shark and can cream money from beginners and drunkards.
I often see guys at PLO10 with $50+ stacks. They just know how to play and take the money from those like myself who are experimenting or whatever else with the game.
Other option is to go much higher. You will have 3.5K online roll so why not play 2-5 - you have 7 buy ins? The money itself is not that important and if you give yourself a 4BI stop loss then you will still have far more than you need to roll your current stakes.
I guess the path to learning solid NLHE is a pretty well defined one. People seem to be willing to learn the game to various degrees though. The luck element does limit winnings and I agree it does seem sustaining 5BB wins become impossible beyond 50NL. I'm still in the process of stepping up to 50NL and have managed it by the stealthy trick of playing 25GBP No Limit tables! If I ignore the currency its just the same bet sizes only my wins double. Learning another game is something I'll leave until I start get tired of NLHE or think I've hit a glass ceiling.
Not sure about your 2-5 suggestion. I'm pretty sure I would be pwned! Beating 50NL consistantly will be my only goal for now! I'll think about stepping up if I can manage over 5BB/100 for mmmm lets say 30,000 hands.
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