This is all a bit hypothetical but I was pondering this last night. If I were to decide to return to the UK some time in the future I could make a stop off in the Philippines en route. Given the cost of living in there I'm considering the possibility of being able to support me and the family there for an extended holiday by playing poker.
I reckon the following variables have to be considered.
1) How many hours a week could I play.
2) How many tables could I play.
3) What level of table could I play.
4) What is my expected win-rate.
Based on my current play I would estimate the following as realistic.
1) 25 hours 2) 3 tables 3) 25NL 4) 10BB/hour win-rate
= US$750 a month = HK$5,850 = 29,250 peso a month.
Now in Hong Kong terms that is a lousy wage and I wouldn't dream of 'working' 25 hours for that amount. However if it enabled an extended holiday for say three months without dipping into my savings it wouldn't be too bad. Let Mrs Phillberto and the little 'berts see their family for a while. One three hour session in the morning, another three hours in the evening with the afternoon at the beach and laid back dinner and pina colada of an evening and a couple of days off a week to chill and be a tourist. What do you think?
Tweaking the variables a little bit.
1) 30 hours 2) 4 tables 3) 50NL 4) 10BB/hour
All very hypothetical as I've not played at these levels yet but I don't see these targets as being too outlandish.
= US$2,400 a month = HK$18,720 = 93,600 peso a month.
Now again I wouldn't consider that as worth doing in Hong Kong or UK but staying in the Philippines I can imagine that might actually translate into a decent quality of life. Presumably I'd improve as I was playing so much.
I'd have the funds to cover a three month vacation even if the and wouldn't want to extend it beyond 3-12 months but see this as a viable detour on my way home.
As I have no plans to head home as yet so this is all hypothetical but with education fees looming on the horizon in the not too distant future it's got me to thinking.
What do you reckon? Pie in the sky?
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8 comments:
erm - also might want to check whether you can actually access sites from the Philippines? And - can you get the money out?
Pretty sure you can. I've seen a blog of a young American who has gone across to live there and play. I think there is a little poker community in Manila although I wouldn't want to stay there. I think I can get a neteller card which you can use as an ATM card.
Probably though I would just use my savings and adjust my spend according to my bankroll which I'd cash in at the end of the experiment.
I read an interview with Negraneau where he said he paid himself an hourly rate where he won or lost. It was based on his actual win-rate but meant he was less likely to tilt money off and he could just shrug off a bad day. Given his style there would be a helluva lot of variance so maybe not a bad idea. He reckoned the key to winning is to make sure you get the hours in.
What would you do here?
Table Table 126252 (Real Money) -- Seat 1 is the button
Total number of players : 2
Seat 1: deadly3 (1820)
Seat 2: Yeboah333 (2180)
deadly3 posts small blind (20)
Yeboah333 posts big blind (40)
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to deadly3 [ Ad, Ah ]
deadly3 calls (20)
Yeboah333 raises (40) to 80
deadly3 calls (40)
** Dealing Flop ** : [ Qc, Jc, 2c ]
Yeboah333 bets (160)
deadly3 raises (440) to 440
Yeboah333 raises (1940) to 2100
Yeboah333 is all-In.
Your analysis of your results is from poker tracker, right? I just wondered...I thought 10BB per hour meant "big bets" and not Big Blind? Therefore your earn rate would be double your current calculation as Big Bet is x2 Big Blind.
Slow playing, eh. Did you get your fingers burned or did it work out for you.
What read does the min raise give you? He has position so fairly reasonable with any two cards. He wants more money in the pot but doesn't want you to fold.If he isn't doing this most of the time that might give a bit of a clue to his range. I'll work on the principle that this is a fairly infrequent raise and not just his standard.
Ok looking at the worst options first.
Made flush- I Don't think he has the nuts. Pot sized bet would be reasonable for a made baby flush if he has Axs or Kxs I think he would bet less to suck you in. I the presence of the Q and J in the flop mean that it is less likely he has two suited cards that he would min-raise pre-flop though. Because of the pre-flop raise I'm actually putting this holding as a bit more unlikely than normal although the raise and push afterwards fits this hand.
Trips - Don't think 22 would go for a min-raise. JJ (and less so QQ) would probably play a little faster pre-flop.
Not thinking this is likely.
QJ- fits the min raise, fits the pot-size bet. I reckon there would a delay before he shoved as he was thinking about the chances you had a flush. Was there?
Q2 or J2 - unlikely. he would have just called or tried to get you to fold pre-flop rather than min-reraising.
AQ - Maybe. Again there would be a delay before he pushed though.
AJ - nope not without Ac.
Aclubsx - Think this is pretty likely. Shove would probably come quite quickly after your raise. A fuck it I'm all-in impulsive thing.
k10/9 10(with a club)- this actually fits the play quite well.
A10 - (with one club)- another possibility.
KK - another possibility as he could have been slow-playing them too.
Total bluff- always give it a 10% chance as Harrington advises.
Made flush - 20% chance- Drawing dead.
Trips/Two pair - 15% chance - 3.5-1 against(?)
A clubs - 35% 2-1 in your favour.
k/10c kind of hand - 20% - a race
KK - 1% - big fave.
Bluff- other - 10% ahead maybe 5-1 to win.
I rate you most likely just behind (48% chance of winning).
but with pot odds of 2.76-1 eg calling 1,300 to win 3,600 its worth a call.
If I have to guess a hand I'll for.
Kc10x or Ac6x.
So what happened?
Oh and I'm sure you called :-)
He had Ac Ks - I put him on the draw with a high club...and he was quite weak with his raises throughout and you're right...I insta-called Phil Helmuth style and no clubs came...$4 for me - a few hands later - yay!
deadly3 calls (1300)
deadly3 is all-In.
** Dealing Turn ** : [ Js ]
** Dealing River ** : [ 3s ]
Creating Main Pot with $3640 with deadly3
** Summary **
Main Pot: 3640
Board: [ Qc Jc 2c Js 3s ]
deadly3 balance 3640, bet 1820, collected 3640, net +1820 [ Ad Ah ] [ two pairs, Aces and Jacks -- Ad,Ah,Qc,Jc,Js ]
Yeboah333 balance 360, bet 2180, collected 360, lost -1820 [ Ks Ac ] [ a pair of Jacks -- Ac,Ks,Qc,Jc,Js ]
Yeah you are right on that understanding. The figures I usually give in the blog are PTBB/100. From that figure I've calculated Big blinds(BB)/hour to make it easier to calculate other figures. It works on the principle If I play 50 hands an hour it is the same. Maybe not strictly true but only under-represents my winnings slightly.
If I have 15PTBB/100 at 25NL. That is 0.5x15= 7.50 per hundred hands. Playing 70 hands an hour I'm making $5.25 and hour per table so 2 tabling I'm making $10.50 an hour at the moment.
I've set 10PTBB as more realistic as a longer term winning rate though and 50 hands an hour is probably more realistic given I'll need the odd tea and pee break If I'm playing a 3 hour session.
An addendum to the blog figures quoted. I've not taken into account bonus whoring money. Working on the basis of US$2 per table hour and US$2.50 per table hour at 50NL.
I get the following monthly total figures (win +bonus):
Hypothesis 1 = HK$13,650 a month.
Hypothesis 2 = HK$28,000 a month.
It would actually be higher for the first two or three months and then settle down to this level.
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